[Is Mbeki’s legacy this impressive? Maybe this is Mbeki’s fake legacy – the one he wishes were true. So are they now hoping Sexwale will be the next president? As if I care. Jan]

By William Mervyn Gumede

President Thabo Mbeki will strive to make his succession as relatively smooth as the transition from Mandela was to him. But he would also like the next president to preserve his legacy.

That legacy includes a competitive economy, the creation of a large black business class and repositioning South Africa as the champion of poor nations and the driving force behind continental renewal – his African Renaissance. At least one of Mbeki’s hopes could be dashed.

Quite early into his second term of office, the mood within the ANC was shifting towards a contested presidential election in keeping with the party’s established culture and tradition. Many believe that Mbeki’s uncontested rise to the position was a democratic aberration that should never happen again.

It was not that the ANC believed Mbeki was the wrong man for the job, but rather that the absence of choice was inherently alien to the democratic process, regardless of the circumstances. Even Nelson Mandela has conceded that it is not the ANC’s style for an incumbent to choose a successor without putting it to the vote.

In reality, however, Mbeki was the third ANC president in a row to be elected unopposed. Oliver Tambo got the job by default, as it was impossible for the ANC in exile to hold elections. Mandela was the consummate struggle icon, fresh out of prison, and sentiment alone would have made it unthinkable for anyone else to become president at that specific juncture.

The Mbeki succession is thus fraught with danger. This will be the first time that the ANC has to manage a candidacy battle, and it might well have to do so without the stabilising influence of party elders, such as the ageing Mandela.

As the experience of other liberation movements – such as Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF and Namibia’s Swapo – has shown, the choice of second- or third-generation leaders can be a bruising affair. Mbeki will certainly have a say in the selection, but he has yet to show his hand.

Tokyo Sexwale, who commands huge cross-racial support within and outside the ANC, has boldly declared that he will accept a nomination to run if asked by ANC members. His successor as Gauteng premier, Mbhazima Shilowa, has probably made some inroads into Sexwale’s former solid support base in the province, but could not hope to compete for the backing of high finance and money.

Sexwale is one of Mandela’s favourite sons, not least because, when the old man needed a last-minute R1-million bail-out to pay for his birthday bash in 2003, Sexwale came to the rescue.

Sexwale was so dejected when he was accused of plotting to oust Mbeki that he withdrew from politics, disillusioned. But now, it seems, he is back. Mbeki and Sexwale have made up, and Sexwale was one of the ANC heavyweights from whom Mbeki sought counsel before firing Zuma.

Sexwale and First Lady Zanele Mbeki have become close personal and business associates, and, through the Women’s Development Bank, she has become involved in several joint ventures with Sexwale’s Mvelaphanda.

Sexwale now frequently supports business projects financially, both at home and on the African continent, that Mbeki feels should be supported by black business.

In January 2004, Mbeki’s close ally, former spy master Vusi Mavimbela, joined Mvelaphanda, which indicates how close the Sexwale and Mbeki relationship now is. It can only be good for any future Sexwale campaign.

The telegenic former Robben Islander has become extraordinarily wealthy in recent years, but still has the common touch that swept him to prominence in the volatile aftermath of Chris Hani’s assassination.

Gabriel Mosima “Tokyo” Sexwale was born on March 5 1953 in Orlando West, Soweto, not far from Nelson Mandela’s original home. He completed business studies at the University of Lesotho, Botswana and Swaziland, joined the Black Consciousness Movement (BCM) as a student, and was active in the South African Students’ Movement.

He joined the exodus of bright BCM cadres and joined the ANC’s armed wing, Umkhonto weSizwe. He went into exile in 1975, training in the Soviet Union and specialising in military engineering.

In 1976, Sexwale was captured in a confrontation with the South African security forces, and two years later was sentenced to jail for life for trying to overthrow the apartheid government. He spent 13 years on Robben Island. In 1994, he was elected chairperson of the Gauteng ANC branch and appointed provincial premier. After he left politics in 1998, he quickly built a business empire founded on diamonds and oil.

His investment company, Mvelaphanda, has myriad investments across the continent, its tentacles extending to the oil fields of Angola, Sudan and the Gulf of Guinea. But his footprints are increasingly seen in Russia, where he is well connected in political, business and mining circles.

Of all the potential candidates, he would also be the most glamourous. He and his wife Judy are on the guest lists of South Africa’s richest and most prominent hostesses, and if South Africa elected its presidents the way Americans do, Sexwale would be a shoo-in.

At the peak of his business career, Sexwale has been quietly laying the ground for a presidential bid. He has ensured that he remains on good terms with all lobbies in the ANC, regularly sponsoring conferences of ANC, Cosatu and SACP structures.

When a senior ANC leader is in financial or political trouble, Sexwale is the first to offer help. In this way he has built up a long line of political credit that he will be able to draw on during the tough succession battle.

Some critics are saying his largesse to prominent figures is nothing but the buying of influence. In early 2007, it was revealed that he had given away millions of rands in shares in his Batho Bonke black economic empowerment consortium, which had bought an 11 percent stake in Absa, to “high flyers” in South Africa.

Beneficiaries include Mathews Phosa (the former premier of Mpumalanga, and also touted as a presidential candidate); Manne Dipico, the former premier of the Northern Cape; and the Western Cape ANC chairman, James Ngculu.

He has also given shares to the spouses of key individuals on the ANC’s national executive committee, including Nompumelelo Maduna, the wife of former justice minister Penuell Maduna; Thuthukile Skweyiya, the wife of Zola Skweyiya the welfare minister and ANC “elder”; Thami Didiza, the husband of Thoko Didiza, the minister of public works; and Mbeki’s wife, Zanele.

Sexwale has also extended his patronage to those outside politics. He has given shares to Sophie Mokoena, the political editor of the SABC; the Natal judge president Vuka Tshabalala, who oversaw Zuma’s corruption case; Xolela Mangcu, a prominent analyst; King Goodwill Zwelithini; Manala Manzini, the head of the National Intelligence Agency; Danisa Baloyi, a leading black empowerment business leader; Thami Mazwai, the journalist-turned-businessman; and many of Mandela’s children.

Over Christmas 2006, a number of ANC bigwigs urged Sexwale to step forward as a “compromise” candidate. If Zuma withdraws and ANC leaders insist – as they have already begun to do – on a compromise candidate, Sexwale might just be their man.

Sexwale has based his presidential campaign firmly on being the compromise candidate between Mbeki, on the one hand, and Zuma on the other. Unlike Ramaphosa, Sexwale did not stay on in the ANC’s powerful national executive committee when he left politics. This means he is without a base within the ANC that he can use to lobby party members.

Nevertheless, he has the same constituency as Mbeki: the middle classes, business and professionals. He can count on the network of former ANC armed-wing members, as well as on many who spent time on Robben Island.

Sexwale has targeted the provincial ANC secretaries and former premiers to garner support on his behalf – and it is not surprising that they have been the biggest beneficiaries of his largesse.

In 2005, emissaries of Sexwale organised a formal but secret meeting with provincial ANC secretaries to lobby them for a future presidential bid. As premier, he did build a solid support base in his home province of Gauteng.

He now appears to have made inroads in the Free State, where Pat Matosa, a powerful local ANC leader, is co-ordinating his campaign. He has pockets of support in the Eastern Cape, from where he is expected to secure his formal nomination.

His big problem is that, unlike Cyril Ramaphosa or Jacob Zuma, he does not have solid roots in the unions or on the left. However, he can take solace from the fact that Zuma became the darling of the left despite having had no prior connection with them or the trade unions.

Sexwale’s ally Shilowa, his successor as the premier of Gauteng and the popular former general secretary of Cosatu, might help.

Sexwale has promised he will lobby to secure for Shilowa the position of ANC secretary-general if Shilowa, in turn, lobbies for him among the left. The only problem, according to Shilowa’s advisers, is that their man would like the deputy presidency.

Although Mandela has not endorsed him for the presidency as he once did Ramaphosa, Sexwale knows the symbolic importance of not only being associated with Mandela, but also securing his blessing.

He was imprisoned with Mandela on Robben Island, and Sexwale has styled himself as the natural heir of Mandela’s inclusive, non-racial and reconciliatory style, emphasising that he won’t accept a nomination based on tribalism, divisions and ethnicity.

And it was hardly surprising when, in a BBC interview, he said he follows “Mandela’s line”. At one point he told the white CEO of Mvelaphanda, Mark Wilcox, to employ more whites, because his company is too black.

Many wonder whether Sexwale’s strategy of defying the ANC’s tradition of secrecy to campaign openly for the presidency – which may be good for the broader democracy – might backfire on the ANC itself. Kgalema Motlanthe, the ANC secretary-general, has been critical of Sexwale, saying his way is “not the ANC way” of doing things.

The enthusiastic embrace of Sexwale’s bid by the media, business and the international establishment may also count against him.

Furthermore, Sexwale has taken a considerable gamble in announcing his intention to stand so early. Unlike Zuma, the likes of Ramaphosa, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and Mosiuoa Lekota, the ANC chairman, are all keeping their heads below the parapets until the December 2007 national conference.

Sexwale left government for business in 1998 after he, like Ramaphosa, had provoked the ire of Mbeki.

With Mandela’s help, Sexwale secured financial backing from Anton Rupert, who set him up in his business career. Sexwale’s connection with the Rupert family has caused even Johann Rupert to say: “People think I’m Tokyo Sexwale’s godfather.”