[I normally have great respect for Business Day, but I am very skeptical about what these various “analysts” are reading into the situation. Note, there is no firm, and public statement by the Govt on a policy change in Zim. Also, it appears to me the ANC spokesman wants to hint at things and create perceptions in a subtle manner. But whether those perceptions turn out to be real is a whole different ball game. Mbeki’s cabinet is to meet for 3 days to decide on how to handle, among other things: (a) Mugabe’s request for $1 billion (b) Racial quotas in the work place. On the subject of racial quotas: Apparently there is a study which shows the ANC’s racial quotas are stuffing up the SA economy. The ANC is pretending to think about changing their stance on this. I am skeptical of that. In the same vein, I am skeptical as to whether Mugabe’s request for a loan is such a big issue. I think they want to give him the money. Maybe they just want to put on a big act, as if to pretend to be in deep and serious thought about it when in fact, there is not doubt – and he is sure to get it. Jan]

SA takes hard line on Mugabe bale-out

In yet another sign of a perceptible change of attitude, government says it will use its financial leverage over Zimbabwe to force President Robert Mugabe to effect political and economic change in his country. This would be in return for a bale-out of the cash-strapped Zimbabwean economy, and comes a week after Mugabe asked SA for a $1bn loan to help his country stave off expulsion from the International Monetary Fund for failing to service its debt. Government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said yesterday that while no loan agreement had been reached yet, it “is quite possible that the discussions covered possible assistance that Zimbabwe required”. Analysts said the delay in announcing the details was due to SA wanting to “tie Zimbabwe to a set of stringent political and economic conditions”. SA has been pressing Mugabe to speak to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and to institute economic reforms. Mugabe™s request for a loan, which comes against the backdrop of a rapid economic meltdown in Zimbabwe, allows SA to make tough demands. Netshitenzhe said yesterday SA and Zimbabwe were still engaged in talks. “Our government has been having intense discussions with the Zimbabweans on how we can assist them in their programme of economic recovery, as well as matters pertaining to the normalisation of the political situation in that country.” He said any loan agreement would have to be tabled before the cabinet and confirmed by Parliament before it was granted.

News that SA is considering placing conditions on its aid to Zimbabwe is the latest sign that it is moving up a gear in its diplomatic efforts in Zimbabwe. Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka™s visit to Mugabe last week was to warn the Zimbabwean president to “change course” if he wanted SA™s continued support. Mbeki met MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai for talks last month. Warm comments from both Mugabe and the MDC about Mbeki™s involvement recently are a sign that the new thrust is beginning to bear fruit. Matshiqi said SA™s tough stance was intended to anticipate the strong condemnation that Zimbabwe was expected to receive in an imminent United Nations report on its notorious urban clean-up campaign, Operation Restore Order. In a move that analysts said could prove politically tricky for SA, Mugabe is to visit China this weekend with a similar loan plea. Political analyst Nic Borain said Mugabe could be trying to play SA off against China. Borain said: “SA would not want to lose its geostrategic influence in the Southern African Development Community to China and this might be a push factor for SA to exercise leverage.” He said the South African public would need to be convinced that SA, which has always enjoyed leverage over Zimbabwe, would exercise it and not be as flexible as it had been in the past. Mugabe, banned from western countries in 2002, has now turned to Asia for help, and particularly China. Meanwhile, former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano said yesterday that Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, current chairman of the African Union, had asked him to serve as the union™s envoy to Zimbabwe and to “consult with the leaders of Zimbabwe”.

From Business Day (SA), 19 July
By: Karima Brown, Dumisani Muleya and Jonathan Katzenellenbogen
Source: WWW.ZwNews.Com