WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.
Original Post Date: 2003-01-21 Posted By: Jan
From the News Archives of: WWW.AfricanCrisis.Org
Date & Time Posted: 1/21/2003 2:24:07 PM
Goodnews! Gold looking up in 2003
[Note. The only bummer for us in South Africa, in terms of mine profits has – believe it or not – been the strengthening rand. But I see it is slipping. So Gold will be pumping some good (much needed) money into our economy this year. For folks in South Africa, I strongly recommend the STANDARD BANK GOLD FUND as an excellent investment. It is my favourite mutual fund and its been performing excellently the last few years. Jan]
LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) – The average gold price is seen rising 10.5 percent in 2003 due to further weakness in an already ailing dollar and the metal’s reputation as a safe-haven asset, a Reuters poll of leading metals analysts showed on Tuesday.
The global survey of 21 analysts forecast that gold would average $342.50 a troy ounce in 2003, up 10.5 percent on 2002, then drop back slightly to $340.00 in 2004, still up 9.7 percent on 2002 prices.
A similar Reuters poll of analysts surveyed in July 2002 had indicated that the precious metal would average $320.00 an ounce in 2003. Gold averaged $310 an ounce in 2002.
Analysts said prices would remain volatile in 2003 and said their forecasts could change significantly depending on the outcome of any war in Iraq and how the dollar fared against major currencies.
“Basically this is a very complicated world where, contrary to the experience of the 1990s, having some gold insurance in your portfolio is a good idea,” said Nick Moore, metals analyst with JP Morgan Securities Ltd.
Many in the market were caught out by a red-hot rally last year which sent gold prices up by some 25 percent, as a cocktail of bullish factors attracted fresh investors to the metal, making it one of the best performing financial assets in 2002.
Gold has renewed its status as a traditional safe haven in times of financial or political crisis and prices breached $400/oz after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August/September 1990.
Spot bullion was quoted at $355.00/355.75 in early London trading on Tuesday, not far from a near six-year peak.
GOLD TO GAIN ON WOBBLY DOLLAR, WAR FEARS
Geopolitical tension and fear of further terror attacks, along with investors reallocating portfolios to incorporate gold as the dollar and stock markets sink further, were the main factors seen supporting prices in 2003.
But prices could take a hit if any war in Iraq proved short- lived, thus calming oil prices and stabilising the dollar, while the spectrum of investors would need to be broadened to continue supporting prices.
Most analysts were expecting a battle against deflation in the U.S. and Europe to hit the dollar hard and benefit gold.
“U.S. inflation will surprise to the downside leading the Fed to engage in unconventional methods in the battle against deflation from mid-year,” said Dresdner Kleinwort Wassterstein’s analyst Kevin Crisp, who forecast an average 2003 price of $350/oz.
“The result will be a further weakening in the U.S. dollar, low growth and low investment returns.”
The two most bearish analysts, Barclays Capital’s Kevin Norrish and Socgen’s Stephen Briggs, predicted the dollar would stabilise in 2003, although they did not rule out further short-term spikes in the price of gold.
“2003 looks like being the year that gold prices fall back to earth with a bump,” Norrish said.
He forecast an average gold price of $315 an ounce in 2003, while Briggs put his estimate at $310, from a range of $300-400.
Gold may also benefit from a continued lack of Central Bank selling due to their obligations under the Washington Agreement.
“Ironically it is more likely to be a palliative such as an extension to the Washington Accord rather than falling bombs which is likely to lift gold into its new upper range,” Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com said.
Other analysts feared discussions for a new agreement in 2004 could introduce further volatility into the market.
The agreement set limits on gold sales of 15 central banks in 1999, capping sales at 400 tonnes a year until 2004.
On the downside, a move by leading miners to reduce the amount of gold sold in forward markets at fixed prices was seen slowing, although massive hedging was not expected to restart.
Physical demand would also be affected by the jump in prices, while supply could increase via higher scrap metal sales and, to a lesser extent, new mines coming on line.
“Reduction in physical demand from major entrepot centres will start to bite eventually – these markets are historically very price sensitive,” JP Morgan’s Moore said.
Silver prices were forecast to average $4.75 cents an ounce in 2003, up 3.3 percent, but were set to climb 7.6 percent (versus 2002) in 2004 to $4.95.
PLATINUM ROBUST, PALLADIUM GLOOMY
Supply scarcity would force platinium prices even higher, with output looking likely to grow less than expected in South Africa and top producer Russia unable to keep up with demand.
“We believe the inability for new mine supply to meet this growing demand will produce several years of deficit…any supply disruptions could have serious implications on prices,” said Ingrid Sternby, base metals analyst with Barclays Capital.
Demand from the key Chinese jewellery sector and offtake from European diesel vehicle makers would also be key drivers for strong demand growth.
Platinum was expected to average $612.50 an ounce in 2003, up 13 percent on 2002.
Palladium would remain severely depressed due to oversupply, with prices forecast to fall 22 percent in 2004 to an average $260.00 an ounce from $333 in 2002. It was seen averaging $275 in 2003.
That is a far cry from prices in excess of $1,000/oz just two years ago following supply uncertainty from main producer Russia.
“Palladium’s pain after the price excesses of the recent past will continue to play to platinum’s advantage,” Dresdner’s Crisp said.
For full details of the poll double-click on
By Clare Black
Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service
URL: http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2003/01/21/rtr…br>