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Original Post Date: 2003-12-04 Published on: ETHERZONE.COM  Posted By: Jan
SubTitle: How the USA is losing in Afghanistan & Iraq
[Note. We’ve had so much guerilla war over here, that I watch with fascination as the USA enters the world of terrorism and guerilla warfare. These things may be new to you people – watching your back, even on your home territory – but here in Africa we went through this for decades. So I’d like to throw some thoughts in from our perspective here.
Early in 2003, I wrote a number of articles on WWW.Etherzone.com stating that I believed the USA was being manoevred into a strategic trap where they would face a Vietnam-like situation. And so it is interesting to see this authoritative article from England stating that things are going badly.
Let’s wipe away the smoke and mirrors. In my view, to be brutally frank, I think Cololeeza Rice is an idiot. What she believes about Russia is just junk. I said back then that I believed Russia, the original sponsor of Saddam Hussein, and the same people who made it possible for an “victory easy” in Afghanistan, were setting the USA up. The Russians told the Northern Alliance to work with the USA. If it wasn’t for Russia, the war in Afghanistan would not have gone so quickly. But its a trap. It was a bait. It was to lure the USA into bigger and bolder things and then later, turn the tables and stretch the USA as much as possible in lots of war in lots of places. That trap is now being sprung.
You may have heard of the mystery weapon that knocked out a US tank in Iraq a while back. I heard, via the grapevine, from someone in a military position in the Middle East, that he believes it could be an experimental Russian weapon.
The “nice thing” from a military point of view, is that by sucking the USA into some local conflicts, it gives the USA’s enemies time to practise against US Soldiers and weaponry.
Vietnam is definitely the USA’s worst defeat of modern times, and I believe the Russians long for another shot at the USA via a Third Party in a similar way, and the Middle East situation (where the Russians have sponsored the Arabs and terrorists like Gadaffi, Arafat, etc for decades) is the perfect place to spring such a trap.
That “low morale” business in Iraq… is the worst possible thing that could happen. Everyone was suckered into thinking this is a sunday afternoon walk in the park, and now the harsh reality is that a conflict which will last YEARS and YEARS is looming… and with this will come a bitterness and HATRED unparalleled…
The USA’s Achilles heel – as I wrote earlier this year – is going to be that Americans are “sqeamish”. As people start dying here and there, many people in America are going to start wanting “out”. “Don’t let another Mother lose her son…” – they will say. And the military planners who planned this whole strategic trap in the first place know this, and they are banking on it. They are banking on the possibility that they can cause political trouble in the USA. They want to divide you while uniting everyone who hates you, against you.
So many dreadful conflicts started out as “quick wars”. I never believed that things would just be over so quickly, and the USA would walk away with the mission accomplished. The secret lies in the fact that the enemies of the USA are masters at the art of terrorism, at making people SUFFER, and at dragging that suffering out and making as many wounds as possible. They play on the human emotions. They can’t win outright in a straight fight, so they resort to this terrorism. It is horrible, it is nasty, it is deceitful. They won’t fight you straight. They sneak up on you. They kill innocents, etc, etc.
I believe, this whole terrorism 9/11 business, from the start was intended to galvanise the USA into attacking murky, hidden targets (instead of the real enemy) – which the USA is now doing. But the problem is, the USA still does not realise who is really pulling the strings. I believe this is because US intelligence is (sad to say), useless. So the USA is running around in Afghanistan, looking for Bin Laden – who was never found, and Saddam who slipped away right from under their noses. This says outright, that the USA has no idea of who is where. If they KNEW where Saddam was then why haven’t they caught him? Ditto for Bin Laden. The answer is: The CIA, NSA, etc haven’t got the faintest clue.
There was a most interesting news report during the Iraq war that the Russians were hiding Saddam Hussein in their embassy. Then later, the US Military attacked a group of Russian diplomatic vehicles. I believe in the fullness of time, we will hear the real story. Here is what I believe it was: I believe the Russians deliberately helped Saddam to get out and they also helped Saddam to confiscate most of the really sensitive files of what really went on. I’ll bet it was part of the plan to ensure that there was no evidence of weapons of mass destruction (that being part of the lure for the attack). One day we may discover that Saddam was in those Russian vehicles that pulled out of Baghdad.
Wanna know where Saddam is? I’m betting he’s sitting in Russia and I will fall on my back if the US forces EVER manage to discover him in “Tikrit”. Bull.
Bin Laden could be sitting in China.
Another piece of info – a contact of mine in the Middle East has told me quietly for months that every Arab terrorist in every neighbouring country, and even terrorists from “Chechnya” (let’s call it “Russia’s training ground for Islamic terrorists”) has been moving into Iraq. This has been going on for months – and now you see the result of all this as we see the heavy attacks on US forces in recent times.
The guerilla war in Iraq has only started. The whole purpose of this conflict in my opinion is a strategic trap aimed at leading the USA into a major conflict with the Arab/Muslim world, and the USA will bleed and bleed. Eventually, of course, they want the USA out of the Middle East so that Israel can be slaughtered for once and for all and for the Russians to then have complete control of the Middle East via their Arab/Muslim allies. That’s what 9/11 and all this is about in my view.
I note in the article below a lot of parallels between the way the Russians ran the Liberation wars of Africa and what is being done in Iraq/Afghanistan. For example, making it a higher priority to kill those who are co-operating with America for example. This is crucial. If one can kill the “sell-outs” first, then eventually it degenerates into an Arab/American war. Once that happens… all is lost… you are right back into a Vietnam/Africa situation where you fight and fight and it just gets more bitter.
The alternative is to just kill and kill and kill. But what for? Is there anything worth fighting for there? Or will it become an issue of pride and honour?
I really thought Bush made a silly statement recently when he disputed that this was a guerilla war and these were the last desperate efforts of a dead regime. Well, 130 attacks on coalition forces per day – to me that sounds pretty much like quite a hot guerrilla war.
I have pondered the whole guerilla war issue for a long time, and I have my own theory on how one should fight a guerilla war. Firstly, of course, it is an intelligence war. You need spies and informers and US intelligence currently seems quite pathetic. But secondly, I believe the way to really beat guerillas is to start giving in to them. Let them win some “liberated areas”. Retreat. They can’t kill your soldiers if they group together in larger formations so your soldiers will be safe. Forget about national pride, etc. Let them take over cities, provinces, etc. Encourage them. Make them think they’re winning. Let them get bolder. Let them form larger groups, etc. Remember, they may be winning the guerilla war, but conventionally you can still kill them. So let them get bold. Let your soldiers fight rear guard actions, and “leave” with your tail between your legs. Create convoys and start retreating. But meanwhile prepare for a massive counter-offensive…. then as they are screaming victory and rushing to attack your retreating soldiers, then unleash all hell on them. Turn around, surround them and kill them to the man. Let no one live. The Mongols conquered the greatest empire in all history, and fake withdrawals and retreats was one of their most common strategems. Slaughter the enemy in the counter attacks to the last man (even if they hold up white flags), and go back in and take the country over again. By encouraging them out into the open, to group into larger forces, you will kill 100 or 1000 times more of them than if you stuck around and fought them piecemeal. It will be quick and thorough and then they have to start building up from nothing. It will also show you who is really on your side. Then you can go back and kick their asses.
Stick around. This is going to get really interesting. The game is far from over. Jan]
Sun 30 Nov 2003
By Andrew Neil
IN NEW York the mood is buoyant as the American economy continues to purr at a satisfying rate, but 250 miles to the south in Washington DC there is increasing private gloom among those in the know that events in Afghanistan and Iraq are going badly wrong – and growing despair about what to do about it.
President Bushs bold Thanksgiving trip to Baghdad gave US troops a much-needed fillip and he said all the right things. But behind the scenes the war on terror is going badly wrong in its two main theatres. “In both places it is worse than you think,” I was warned before arriving in the US capital for a series of off-the-record briefings. The warning was accurate.
Take Afghanistan first. You dont read or see much about it these days. The reality is grim. The Taliban is resurgent; al-Qaeda is there too, but not as relevant as it was. Attacks on aid workers are soaring; many are refusing to leave the urban areas. The warlords are back in control of the countryside, where opium production is already above pre-invasion levels. “Afghanistan is a narco-economy once more,” said one intelligence analyst.
The Taliban regularly mounts attacks in the rural areas and is expected to hit urban centres with greater force. “If they knew how weak we were,” confided one intelligence source, “they would have done it already.” Coalition forces are confined to Vietnam-style strategic hamlets from which they emerge for operations only in great force, before returning to their enclaves. Hamid Karzais grip on power is tenuous..
Last week the Los Angeles Times reported on its front page that loads of recruits are quitting the fledgling Afghan army because of pitiful pay. The US wont provide figures, but an Afghan officer said: “We have roughly 6,000 trained soldiers, out of whom no less than 2,000 have left.” The US says it plans to have 70,000 soldiers in the force; nobody has any idea from whence they will come.
Yet despite the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, a huge amount of US military assets have been shifted to Iraq. The Germans now make up the biggest part of the coalition forces along with various other European contingents. Washington fears they will not stay for long when casualties start to mount. “The prognosis for Afghanistan is miserable,” was how one US intelligence source concluded his briefing.
It is not much better for Iraq. There are now an average of 130 attacks a day on coalition (mainly American) forces; almost 100 coalition troops have been killed in November, the grimmest month so far. “We only have a third of the forces we need to fight the insurgents,” one former US diplomat told me. The intelligence is threadbare too: US commanders have no real idea who they are up against, except that they are well-organised remnants of Saddams Baathist regime, supplemented with some al-Qaeda-type Islamo-fascists. “We still dont really know who is behind the attacks,” I was told. “So we just go around kicking doors in – which is exactly what the enemy wants us to do.”
The US forces might lack purpose or direction but there are plenty of both to the insurgents attacks. The UN was specifically targeted; it is now effectively gone from Iraq. Next were the various non-government organisations trying to assist in building a better Iraq; they, including the Red Cross, have also headed for the exit. Then it was the turn of what few allies America has in Iraq, specifically the Italians. Those most at risk now are Iraqis co-operating with the US. Last week a US commander reported a slackening of attacks on his own troops because the insurgents were concentrating on assassinating those they see as quislings.
Now it is the Americans themselves who seem to be in a rush for the exit. On September 22 Condoleezza Rice, the presidents national security adviser, attacked France for suggesting a speedier transfer of power to Iraqis. Yet since President Bush summoned Paul Bremer, his Iraqi governor general, to the White House, that is exactly what is happening. Bush wants a substantial withdrawal of US forces before next Novembers elections. Former Pentagon favourite, Ahmad Chalabi, is dismayed: “The whole thing [the speedier transfer of power] was set up so President Bush could come to the airport in October [2004] for a ceremony to congratulate the new Iraqi government.”
The consequences on the ground are apparent. Until recently, US forces took 12 weeks to train Iraqis for the new police force; that has been speeded up to one week. No proper checks on individuals are being done, so trainees have been infiltrated with insurgent spies. US intelligence officers were horrified to discover recently that the insurgents even had details of Bremers schedule.
Bush is fond of saying that America did not spend so much in men and materiel to liberate 25 million Iraqis only to succumb to a ragbag of insurgents. Yet it looks as if that is exactly what is happening. The insurgents have noted that a few very big bombs have already forced Washington to speed up its exit strategy; that can only result in even bigger bombs.
No wonder the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration are in retreat: their policy of replacing Middle East tyrants with democracy and functioning economies is in grave danger of falling at the first hurdle, largely from lack if American willpower. The consequences of defeat and retreat, of course, are so grave that I cannot believe any US president can contemplate it for long; but what exactly Bush plans to do about it is a mystery which nobody I met in Washington was able to resolve.
Source: The Scotsman
URL: http://www.news.scotsman.com/international.cf…br>
“Published originally at EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact.”
Etherzone Articles by Jan Lamprecht
Arming Blacks in Zimbabwe
Iraq’s Baffling Moves
The Secret Code of Terrorists
Your Survival Guide to Semantic Warfare. (Understanding the enemies of the West)
The WorldWide War on White People
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