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Uganda: Govt Must Invest in Other Sources of Electricity

WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.

Original Post Date: 2011-07-25 Time: 05:00:01  Posted By: News Poster

Due to globalisation, a country’s competitiveness is a major factor affecting the pace and direction of development. The goods and services produced must be globally competitive even if they are to be consumed within the country.

The distinction between the local, regional and world market is fast diminishing. That is why the products from Asia are out-competing the products produced in Uganda (say rice).

The value chains of products from Asia are more competitive than the value chain of products produced in Uganda.

To understand why, we need to compare the various value chain components of the Uganda products and Asian products, one of the main value chain components is production and processing. This is mainly dependent on the cost and usage of electricity.

If our electricity usage and cost are not comparable, then the production component is not competitive thus the whole value chain.

Therefore, to facilitate production of globally competitive goods and services, our electricity usage and cost must be internationally comparable especially with countries that are flooding our markets with various goods and services.

The usage of electricity worldwide is comparable to using electricity consumption per capita. The electricity consumption per capita (2008 figures) is highly related to the GDP per capita (2008 figures) as shown in the graph below. Countries with higher electricity consumption per capita also have higher GDP per capita thus improved welfare for their population.

The variation is also related to the way the economy of the country is structured as to whether the big contribution is from industrial sector or services sector.

Uganda has low electricity consumption per capita estimated at 69.5 kWh per capita. This is nearly a tenth of African average estimated at 571 kWh per capita and nearly 1/40th of the world average estimated at 2752 kWh per capita.

To address this issue and increase electricity consumption per capita to levels of countries like Malaysia or Korea there is need for a marshal plan because of the great magnitude of the deficits.

The generation capacity will be about 800 MW after commissioning of Bujagali HEP. The country needs to multiply its generation capacity by 50 times to reach the current levels of Malaysia and over 120 times to reach the current levels of Korea by 2040. It will need over 41,000 MW and 96,000 MW to reach the levels of Malaysia and Korea respectively.

The consumption of electricity is further affected by high tariff. The graph below shows the variation of tariff in various parts of the world. As seen below, we have one of the highest electricity tariffs in the world. Please note that the commercial and industrial tariff is of great concern as it affects production directly.

As it can be seen it is very hard to produce and compete with SMEs in China if their industrial electricity tariff is nearly three times cheaper that our tariff. Subsidies for commercial and industrial enterprises will greatly boost production and employment.

In order to improve the electricity generation, we must look at the global trends over the past decades. Analysis of the trends since 1973 has shown some shifts in the source of energy used for electricity production.

The use of oil for electricity production has reduced from about 25% in 1973 to 6% in 2008; the use of gas has increased from 12% to 21%, the use of coal and peat from 38% to 41%. These shifts are related to the costs and environmental aspects of generating electricity.

The challenge we have as a country is that the hydropower, geothermal, biomass co-generation, peat power potential are limited to about 4500 MW, 450 MW, 1650 MW, and 800MW respectively.

The rest of the sources such as solar, wind and other types are still expensive and limited. The heavy oils produce expensive electricity. The use of nuclear energy is debatable after the Japanese crisis, Germany resolution and Italian referendum.

It is, therefore, important to; (1) make huge strategic investments in hydro, geo-thermal, biomass and peat power generations in the next five years ;(2) take steps to invest in alternative renewable energy. Extensive research and exploration is needed (3) take steps to connect the country to long term gas reserves (4) explore use of steam to generate electricity.

But in the short term Government should reduce the industrial and commercial tariff and make it more globally competitive. We need a long term marshal plan to achieve significant progress in this sector.

Original Source: New Vision (Kampala)
Original date published: 20 July 2011

Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201107250045.html?viewall=1