WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.
Original Post Date: 2010-11-30 Time: 16:00:04 Posted By: News Poster
It could be the world’s newest country in January and the government there is busy trying to woo potential investors.
Southern Sudan’s minister for energy and mining Garang Diing promises it will be a very conducive place for investors.
A lot is at stake for investors there and in the East African region come January 9 if a planned referendum turns chaotic, as Frontier Economics mulls in a new report that looks at the economic cost of renewed conflict in Sudan.
The report titled ‘the cost of future conflict in Sudan’ concludes that if the referendum sparks conflict and if it runs for ten years – two big ifs – Sudan’s neighbours could lose over $25-billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while Sudan itself could lose $50-billion.
The referendum was part of a 2005 peace deal – facilitated by Kenya – that ended a long civil war between Islamist leaders in the north and southern rebels fighting against repression.
The report is based on fears that if president Omar al-Bashir does not want to let the oil-rich south secede, conflict will erupt again. Frontier Economics estimates that Kenya and Ethiopia could each lose $1.1-billion-$1.8-billion a year, roughly between 3 and 6% of each country’s GDP if war breaks out on the other side of their borders.
The damage would be in several ways: reduced demand from Sudan for their products, the pressure of fleeing Sudanese refugees on their resources, spill over conflict across borders, the diversion of public spending to the military and a perception that the whole region has become a riskier place.
Egypt would also suffer significantly, although it shares a border with the north. Says the report: ‘The risk to Egypt is still serious. Apart from specific economic impacts, it has a very strong strategic interest in Sudan because of the Nile. Impacts of conflict and its aftermath on the use of the Nile could have significant economic consequences for Egypt.’
About 75% of Sudan’s proven oil reserves of 6.3 billion barrels are in the south, but the pipeline that carries the oil to export terminals and refineries runs through the north. This makes the oil industry vulnerable to any conflict.
President Bashir recently told the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) that he will support the holding of a free and fair referendum.
The ongoing registration for the referendum across the world to capture south Sudanese people in the diaspora, and the assurance by president Bashir have given a bit of confidence on the stability of the vote and the outcome. However, there are still no clear commitments by the leaders of both sides to resolve outstanding issues like the tension along borders and how they will cooperate to keep the oil flowing in the event of secession.
Risk profile up
East Africa’s risk profile is already raised due to the impeding poll. The Africa Trade Insurance (ATI) Agency says demand for political risk covers related to Sudan is on the rise but can’t be met because the country isn’t eligible.
Companies like the Louis Berger Group, a contractor for United States Development Agency in Sudan is already planning emergency evacuation and has sought services of air charter companies.
But the Kenyan companies operating in south Sudan including UAP Insurance, Bidco Oils Refinery and KCB Bank told Business Daily they were confident that the post-referendum situation will remain calm. Meanwhile, Co-operative Bank, Centum, East African Breweries, retail chain Nakumatt have announced plans to expand into south Sudan after the vote.
As the report authors at Frontier Economics acknowledge, measuring the cost of future conflict isn’t actually a science and the southerners are probably counting on this – they are so optimistic about a positive outcome that leaders have already planned for three new oil refineries in the new country.
Original date published: 30 November 2010
Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201011300987.html?viewall=1