WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.
Original Post Date: 2010-09-22 Time: 09:00:01 Posted By: Jan
I thought I would show you some details of how My Technical Indicator has been working out during this crazy year. I am using it for trading and putting my money where my mouth is, and so far its not doing badly. What is nice about it is that it locks in profits at times when fast, nasty falls could occur, and I pull out at key times and then jump back in.
About 2 years ago, I made a bad investment in oil because the long term predictions for commodities including oil seemed very good. So I’ve been stuck with some oil investments that made me a big loss and I want to pull out of it. I am actually going to use a combination of My Technical Indicator and other sources to see if I can get the timing right to get out of the oil at a good time. Oil is a very tricky investment even if you get it right. My own analysis shows that oil is really a short term investment – I mean REALLY SHORT TERM… it is the sort of investment you buy and sell more than once within ONE MONTH. I will show you this later. Even then, its not very profitable. It is an extremely volatile market… but like I say, it has some minor patterns. At the time I bought it I had not done any of my own analysis so I based my views on what others said and I hung in there based on that… all a bad move. Hence my current philosophy is based on my own calculations and I get in and GET OUT… at crucial moments so that I avoid being caught with my pants down on all my investments.
I did make up for some of my oil losses when I followed Jason Kelly’s advice. When BP had that disaster in the Gulf, Jason’s analysis was that it was overblown by the media and that the run on the stock prices provided people with a unique buying opportunity. He gave us the buy signal to buy RIG which is a company related to BP. I went and bought at a slightly better price than he advised, and to date, this small investment has made a 29% return in just a few months. So I will be waiting for when he gives the sell signal and I will use my own technical indicator to time the exact day to sell. I will let you know how that goes. Jason’s move is an example of the Rothschild’s advice of: “Buy when the blood is running in the streets.” While everyone was panicking about the Gulf, and others were circulating panick-stricken emails… it was fuelling a needless panic that the savvy could actually make a buck on… and many did. So let that be a lesson to people who panic…
Now let me show you how My Technical Indicator’s signals has worked this year so far with Gold and with Wall St, despite their bizarre moves.
Below is a graph of the DOW Jones index, which is a basic reflection of most stock markets:-
In the above, the solid red line represents My Technical Indicator indicating when to buy and sell. At D in the above graph, for one day the markets fell below the red line indicating sell, but I ignored that. It was too borderline for me – so I flaunted my own indicator a bit. I only started moving in and taking up a bear position, waiting for the markets to fall between the arrows marked E. You can see that the markets crossed my indicator, fall sharply and flayed around and I was sitting back waiting for them to fall further. Then they recovered and at the end of E, I pulled out, having made a small loss. So I did not get the benefit of the temporary falls. But that is not a problem, this is how my calculation works, and it is fine. I am in this, waiting for SUBSTANTIAL MOVES, and this was not it. The market ended up flattening out. The market recovered a bit, and between the arrows marked F, I went in again and took up a bear position waiting for the markets to fall. The fall started, and then the markets recovered and currently they are moving up again. Once more, I climbed out of F with a small loss. So as you can see, the market is really quite indecisive at this time. It appears as if some kind of bull trend may be in place for now. The markets are managing to cling to the 10,000 range stubbornly. But none of this is very important as my Technical indicator merely will be sitting there and I will wait for the next opportunity. The beauty of this is that you climb in and out, not all that often, and when you do you minimize your losses. When things go wrong you get out. In my case, I am betting on a fall, so rises are my nemesis. So I will wait. If the market goes higher…. it just has further to fall… so I will sit back and wait. Two small losses for this entire year in a market that flayed around with no clear direction is fine for me. In the past I used to get caught badly MANY TIMES when you make a wrong call… you take too long to react and you can lose huge parts of your investment. You can lose even 60-90% of your investment if you make the wrong call, hang in, hoping for better days and the market just continues to fall away. Its hideous. And my approach prevents that. You jump in and out taking small losses, and then when you get it right… you dive in… lock in your profits and really make a killing. So you minimise your LOSSES and you maximize your PROFITS.
Now for Gold. See the Gold graph below for this year:-
My Technical Indicator for Gold is a shorter term one than for the DOW. You move in and out slightly faster… but still at a good leisurely pace. In the region of A, I bought in and sold about 3 times. I was in and out of this indecisive market quite a few times. Then in April, I bought in, locked in and stayed in… I stayed in the market for over 3 months. During that time you can see how the market rose nicely. Then in July, out of the blue, the market started correcting. Overnight I realised there was trouble and in B, I sold ALL my Gold holdings. It was in fact, the first time in years (since I’ve been trading in Gold since 2000), that I had the confidence and courage to go totally on my own Technical Indicator. So I sold EVERYTHING… overnight… The market floundered… and I waited out… to see what happened. Then in August, I climbed back in again. Since I climbed back in again, I made about a 6% profit within a month. Currently I am invested and just watching how the market moves.
I think this is not bad for someone who is no expert. My system removes a LOT of procrastination and a LOT of second guessing and pain. Its simple, it is based on historical calculations and it gives me a peace of mind and confidence I’ve not had before. Now I have the confidence to buy and sell my investment in one block at one time. I don’t sit and sell a bit here and buy a bit there and procrastinate. I buy and sell in an entire block (which is especially cheap when you are dealing with fixed-rate commissions) – and I move decisively. Then I’m in … and then I am out.
Oil is much more speculative… but I am gaining confidence in that one too. However, I am waiting to catch some nice bear market falls when next they come. With the right leverage (e.g. 2x or 3x), if you catch it right… a 10% market fall could earn you a 30% profit. A sharp, hard, 20% fall, could net you a staggering 60%. Such falls do happen… you just need to be patient and prepared for them.
So far, this year has been going well. In prior years, the market’s tricky, unexpected moves made me totally crazy, but now I have some sanity and proven simplicity on my side… and I just go and watch daily or twice a week to see how the market is doing compared to my Technical Indicators and once the lines converge I monitor it daily and then time the buy or the sell.
I can’t overemphasise the importance of CUTTING LOSSES. I have been caught so many times in my life with investments that go sour, despite what you think, and then you hang in too long and then you discover to your horror that your position just keeps on deteriorating… but you do not want to pull out because of the losses you’ve made already. It is so silly… and it can totally destroy your capital. So this is much better… having a reliable method of knowing… time to GET OUT… and time to GET BACK IN… because… even though, in these cases nothing major went wrong… it is just that one instance where things go wrong… that the whole thing collapses and boy it rips your investment to shreds…
But, it also does not help to be too jumpy. I found when I had no fixed method, that you get too paranoid and you are stuck with the stress of indecision… and hence I ended up devising this method based on historical data and analyses. It does not matter how I FEEL… I just look at the numbers. When the numbers say it is time to quit… I force myself to quit, even if I don’t feel like it. And this method has been revolutionary for me.
I will continue with this… and will show you the results as the year goes by and as we go into next year.
When I started the experiment this year… I was not sure how it would work. My past attempts at applying historical data to the future did not work well… but this time, having sorted out the things that caused it to fail… my method is working much better. And you will see how it works… especially when markets go nuts.
Remember, markets FALL twice as fast (on average) than they rise. When they fall, they catch you off guard. Or when a market is rising nicely and it hits a correction or starts turning… you’re still in “bull mode” and meanwhile the bottom is falling out of it, but you are so delighted that you keep resisting the urge to sell. You are fighting your emotions all the time. And I needed to counter that… but I needed to be sure that the signals are pretty solid.
You will see a few times when for short periods the signals are indecisive… but it does not happen often… and I normally monitor the situation daily… during those times watching for a final break up or down and then I move accordingly.
So for me, personally, this has been a revolution in my trading.