Is Conservatism making a Global Comeback?

Original Post Date: 2002-04-23 Time: 12:51:22  Posted By: Jan

Last year I posted an article on my website saying that it seems the Right Wing is on the rise in Europe. I do not follow European politics closely and so this trend stunned me, especially as Socialists were busy sewing up the European Union. It seemed the Left had Europe in its pockets.

However, this victory by Le Pen in France is very interesting. It does not mean he will beat Chirac, but he has nevertheless caught everyone by surprise.

I have been toying with the idea for some time that maybe Conservatism is going to make a big come-back across the world. The reason I say this is because from my perspective, I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that the Leftists and Liberals have failed to deliver. Once upon a time people voted for them in the hope of trying something new. The days of the Flower Children were fun and cute. But around the world, the people on the Left of the Political spectrum have failed. Bit by bit I wonder if, at a grassroots level, the world is going to return to conservatism.

The world’s leaders and intellectuals are largely leftist and they have driven the world towards embracing variations on socialism and towards changing society. But it seems to me, many of their promises did not pan out, and people at a grass-roots level may be forming their own opinions and edging more towards conservatism.

It had always seemed to me as if the inevitable trend was LEFT. The first time I ever considered that the trend may go the other was was when an American friend of mine, Jeff Nyquist, predicted in his book “Origins of the Fourth World War”, that a future America might actually be extremely conservative. Jeff is a sociologist. Jeff believed that in time to come, communism, Marxism and the Left would lead the USA to ruin and the left would be discredited. He believed that in the long run, decades away, lay a conservatism which would be far more extreme than today’s conservatives. Jeff predicted the rise of an Ultra-Conservatism which would make todays conservatives look like the Left Wing. And Jeff might just be right.

Since then I have watched trends in the world, and have grown curious about this possibility. Seeing it in Europe stuns me. A friend of mine who is heavily into politics in South Africa told me of the extremism she has seen brewing in places like Britain – with the British National Party. But they are not alone. Ultra Right Wing parties are springing up everywhere and it stuns me.

There was a time in my life when I was open to all sorts of influences and I even pondered the merits of communism once. But my own interests led me to a path of conservatism. I think also, an interest in history naturally causes one to lean towards being conservative.

I have often wondered if Africa won’t perhaps play a big role in pushing the world towards the Right. I say that because it is evident to me that post-Colonial Africa is a big failure and more and more people in the world are perceiving it as such. It seems to me, bit by bit, aid to Africa is drying up and more conditions are being placed on what aid comes. Even here in South Africa, since 1994, there has been a dearth of investment. Considering the opportunities here, and all the pro-South African rhetoric since 1994, the truth is investment here is nowhere near what people expected. Foreign investors have lost money in Africa for decades and nobody is keen to try their luck here.

The post-Colonial African experience might just play a role in pushing the world to the right. I’ll tell you why. Everybody has been pumping a lot of money into Africa. The First World Nations have put lots and lots of money into projects here – with dismal results. And it seems as if people are tiring of throwing good money after bad.

Indeed, I heard a fascinating story some weeks ago. I was told of an American businesswoman who came to Africa with brand new technology for a wireless telephone system. She raised over $30 million to install it in Tanzania. She experienced a myriad of problems mainly with government officials who stood in her way. Eventually, her project failed. Not to be deterred she raised new capital, this time in Europe I think, and she tried the same thing in Ghana. And there too she lost about $30 million. She went back to the USA disgusted by her experiences in Africa and I am told she is now working on a book explaining why, in her opinion, Africa will not survive the 21st century.

She is not alone. I live in Johannesburg. Johannesburg is the “New York” of Africa. I have lived here since 1985. During that time, as a consultant, I move around and meet people. Time and again, people have dreamt up schemes of moving into Africa, developing Africa, etc. Indeed, it is not just in Johannesburg, but also Harare, Zimbabwe, that many companies have launched initiatives deeper into Africa. I have seen many attempts – MYRIADS of attempts actually – by all manner of businesses – with whites only, or blacks only or blacks and whites – as they try to get things going in Africa. 90% of them fail.

In fact, I consulted to a company which has just gone under. It was a group which was getting agencies for its products in Africa. They ran for about 18 months before folding. Among the countries they targetted were Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda. Eventually they did so badly that they ran out of cash and folded. I lost my job. I had been there from the beginning when they were making bold plans to go into Africa. I had been skeptical because of many other failures I’d seen before. But this is the biggest blowout I’ve been involved in personally.

It seems to me that slowly, people outside Africa are waking up to the fact that the Marxist/Leftist Africa isn’t going to make it. Consider this letter which I quote from Chapter 15 of my book: Government by Deception:

“Consider this letter which was published in the Zimbabwe Independent on 21st December 2000 which demonstrates how even the most liberal people get sick and tired of being taken for fools: –

“I hope you will let Zimbabweans know that there are people outside Zimbabwe who once supported Robert Mugabe and his so-called ‘land reform'. In the process of his anti-white sentiment, he has completely lost my support.

“I am a citizen of Norway, one of the countries that have contributed millions of dollars to Zimbabwe that cannot be accounted for. One can only wonder where the money, machinery and equipment went.

“Most of the machinery is sitting unused and deteriorating in open space. The Norwegian people, including myself, are questioning if aid is wasted on Zimbabwe in its economic crisis. As a travel agent I can no longer recommend Zimbabwe as a safe destination. The anti-white mentality is frightening even to a non-colonialist country like Norway. It's a ‘kick in the face' and a case of ‘biting the hand that feeds you'.

“It looks to me like Mugabe has to go and hopefully be replaced by someone with a more global outlook.

“Meanwhile, Zimbabwe is in the process of being destroyed by Mugabe's propaganda and ignorance.

G. Halvorsen, Norway”

Here in Southern Africa, I can clearly detect that underneath it all, there is a lot of conservatism fuelled by the failure of the Marxist nations around us, and by the policies of the current ANC government. While in South Africa the Right Wing as a force is virtually non-existant, conservatism exists inside people.

Conservatism may be spat upon by the media, and the intellectuals and all the world’s trend-setters – yet, it seems to me, conservatism is natural and is making a comeback now that it is obvious that leftist ideas are not panning out.

Jeff Nyquist also wrote in his book that conservative societies throughout history were the longest lasting of all.

In the article below about Le Pen, it mentions a wave of conservatism which is sweeping across Europe. This is very interesting.

It appears to me that massive Third World immigration may also have played a role in moving people towards the right – be it in Europe or America.

I was chatting with a friend some weeks ago. We spoke about whether the world was changing. The Left has moved in everywhere and controls most everything. The Mass Media panders to the left, and so forth. Yet, deep down inside the hearts of ordinary people things may be changing. And maybe events like September 11th will help to accelerate the process? She said to me she thought that the world was changing but it was happening very quietly, and it was happening at a grassroots level across the world. She might be right.

I note too, from an African perspective, that Liberalism may yet be buried here in Africa as it becomes obvious that Liberal Democracy in Africa is a complete failure.

Zimbabwe is to me one of the examples of the failure of liberalism. A very strange thing happened in Zimbabwe which commentators do not mention. When Mugabe came to power in 1980, 2/3rds of the white population left the country by 1985. I was among those who left. Those 2/3rds represented the “Rhodesians” – in other words the CONSERVATIVES. The remaining 1/3rd represented the liberals – they were the whites who were happy to call themselves “Zimbabweans.”

This split among whites was interesting. While the two groups kept in touch with each other and there was not much friction, they did nevertheless differ in their attitudes towards Mugabe and his Marxist ZANU(PF) party. The Liberals believed if you worked with Mugabe and were an obedient subject that things would work out. The Conservatives believed it was a waste of time.

Mugabe was busy taking farms long before 2000. And he made life tough for them. It was an interesting situation. The events of the last 2 years have caused the conservatives (Rhodesians) to turn around and say that they were right. You never could work with him and the only correct course of action was military resistance.

Indeed, last week I heard from an old friend, a liberal, whose family is now packing their bags and leaving Zimbabwe for good to return to Wales.

What has happened in Zimbabwe is a victory for conservatism.

But here in South Africa a similar trend exists. The rich whites in South Africa were normally liberal. They were normally English-speaking and they wanted Apartheid scrapped and the ANC unbanned. But they only numbered 40% of the white population and so could never have things their way in the days of Apartheid.

Since 1994, and the collapse of Apartheid and the National Party, the Liberals in South Africa have been having a field day. They believed they could even come to power and get blacks to vote for them.

But an interesting transformation has occurred. The Liberals, the ones who were always squealing for the unbanning of the ANC and for co-operating with them are now in fact the biggest critics of the ANC. Nobody lays more into the ANC than the Liberals nowadays.

Among the wealthy, I have heard of a general trend towards the right. Everywhere I go in South Africa I hear various sentiments expressed by whites and they generally are becoming more and more angry with the situation here. But the most stunning about-turn, as I say, lies in the Liberal Whites. It is they who have moved by far the most to the right. It is very hard to distinguish between their views and the views of traditional conservatives.

So as I view Africa, from my perspective, close at hand, I think I am clearly watching the death of Liberalism.

There is a saying to the effect that a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged. My belief is that Liberalism was nice and cute as a theory, but in the real world, which is a complicated world, conservatism became the order of the day due to various realities which set in. There are certain cultural, religious and racial conflicts which arise as a normal part of life and this is what causes all societies to eventually become conservative. It may be that what we are seeing is a natural change in human consciousness and perceptions. No professor, no politician and no newspaper will be able to stop it.

Leftism was a nice experiment for the last century, but its time may be up.

Jan

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Here is the article which triggered my thoughts above. Note the mention of a trend to the right in several European countries:-

Extreme Rightist Eclipses Socialist to Qualify for Runoff in France

By SUZANNE DALEY

April 22, 2002

PARIS, April 21 – In a major upset not predicted in weeks of opinion

polling,

the extreme rightist Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified today to face President

Jacques Chirac, a conservative, in the runoff for the French presidency

next month.

The 73-year-old Mr. Le Pen, who once called the Nazi gas chambers “a

detail in history,” benefited from the huge field of candidates that split

the vote, an apathetic electorate and a wave of anti-crime fervor to edge

past Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.

With 99.33 percent of the vote counted, Mr. Chirac had 19.6 percent of the

vote, Mr. Le Pen 17 percent and Mr. Jospin 16 percent.

Mr. Le Pen’s victory over Mr. Jospin was described by leaders of the left

and the right as a “political earthquake.” Until today, Mr. Chirac was

expected to face Mr. Jospin in the runoff on May 5. Polls showed that once

the field of candidates was narrowed to these two, Mr. Chirac and Mr.

Jospin were neck and neck in the race.

The results, however, should make it far easier for the 69-year-old Mr.

Chirac to win re-election.

Polls suggest that Mr. Le Pen, a former paratrooper with a strong

anti-immigration message, is a long way from winning over a majority of

French voters. In fact, his candidacy could mobilize large numbers of

left-leaning voters to support the Gaullist Mr. Chirac.

Even before the final votes were tallied, leading Socialists were saying

that they would urge their supporters to do just that to ensure Mr. Le

Pen’s defeat and preserve “the honor of France.” One survey of voters

found that Mr. Chirac would beat Mr. Le Pen in the second round with 78

percent to 22 percent.

But at his headquarters in Paris tonight, Mr. Chirac seemed cautious. He

addressed the nation in a somber mood, urging voters to rally behind

democratic values, without directly mentioning Mr. le Pen.

“The moment of choice has come,” Mr. Chirac said. “What is at stake are

the values of the republic, to which all French people are attached. I

call on all French citizens to rally to defend human rights, to guarantee

the cohesion of the nation, to affirm the unity of the republic, and to

restore the authority of state.”

For his part, a clearly energized Mr. Le Pen stressed his anti-European

Union message.

“Don’t be afraid to dream, you little people, the foot soldiers, the

excluded,

you the miners, the steelworkers, the workers of all those industries

ruined by the Euro-globalization of Maastricht,” Mr. Le Pen said referring

to one of the founding treaties of the European Union signed at

Maastricht. “I call on the French of all races, religions and social

conditions to rally round this historic chance for a national recovery.”

The news of Mr. Le Pen’s victory sparked late-night, anti-Le Pen

demonstrations

in several cities, including Lyon, Grenoble, Lille, Bordeaux and

Strasbourg. In Paris, the Place de La Bastille was filled with

demonstrators, mostly in their 20’s and 30’s. Many stood on construction

scaffolds and on top of bus stop shelters, chanting “Fascism will not

prevail” and “We are all children of immigrants.” > Mr. Le Pen’s defeat of

Mr. Jospin was the latest in a series of blows to the European left that

began in Italy last year, spread to Denmark and Portugal and could engulf

the Netherlands and Germany next.

Reaction to the latest news was mixed, even among some right-wing parties

that have been on the rise in other countries. Filip Dewinter, the leader

of the far-right party Vlaams Blok that took a third of the vote in

Belgium’s second city, Antwerp, in 2000, hailed Mr. Le Pen’s success as

part of a trend. > “I’m very, very pleased that Le Pen scored such a large

victory,” Mr. Dewinter told Reuters. “We are brothers in arms.”

Political leaders on the left expressed dismay. The British Labor leader

in the European Parliament said Mr. Le Pen’s victory, coming after other

successes for far-right parties across a continent anxious about economic

malaise and ethnic migration, would “send a shudder across the European

Union.” The Social Democrat Prime Minister of Sweden, Goran Persson,

agreed, saying, “I hope that all democratic powers will unite against

right-wing extremism and xenophobia.”

The outcome of the vote was a crushing personal defeat for Mr. Jospin, who

had built a long career on an the image of hard work and honesty at a time

when French politicians from left and right, including Mr. Chirac, had

been tarred by allegations of corruption. But Mr. Jospin had failed to

overcome what many saw as his greatest flaw: a professorial style that

often seemed condescending and humorless.

In recent weeks, he has been criticized for running a stiff, lackluster

campaign. He made several gaffes, including once calling Mr. Chirac

“tired, past it and overcome by the wear and tear of power,” which he

later had to apologize for.

About 11 p.m., with about half the votes counted, a shaken-looking Mr.

Jospin went on television to announce that if early results showing Mr. Le

Pen ahead held up he would retire from political life.

“If the estimates are correct, the results of the first round amount to a

thunderbolt,” Mr. Jospin said. “I assume full responsibility for this

defeat and I draw the conclusion that must be drawn. I will be retiring

from politics.”

He gave no advice to his supporters on how to vote, but key officials in

his cabinet said they would vote for Mr. Chirac. Among them was Dominique

Strauss-Kahn, the former finance minister and Mr. Jospin’s campaign

manager, possible.”

The Green Party candidate, No(235)ël Mamère, also called on his supporters to

mobilize against Mr. Le Pen as did the Communist Party candidate, Robert

Hue.

Analysts say Mr. Le Pen’s victory was built on several factors. One was

the lack of interest that Mr. Jospin and Mr. Chirac managed to elicit.

Even Mr. Chirac’s 19.6 percent of the vote is the lowest by far of a

front-runner in any presidential election in France since the country’s

Fifth Republic was founded in 1958. And voters stayed away in droves,

clearly intending to rebuke the political establishment for a lifeless

campaign, in which both men made virtually identical campaign promises.

The lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Jospin and Mr. Chirac also prompted 14

others to enter the campaign, the biggest, most ideologically varied

ballot in French history. The choices ended up splintering the vote,

particularly on the left.

And a growing fear of crime, which many French citizens blame on

immigrants, also increased Mr. Le Pen’s support.

Mr. Le Pen has run for the French presidency three times before, his dire

warnings of the threat to French life from North African immigration

pushing his share of the presidential vote up from 0.74 percent in 1974,

14 in 1988 and 15 in 1995.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/22/international/europe/22FRAN.html

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