S.Africa: Will the Mbeki-Zuma split be good for us Whites?

Original Post Date: 2005-06-20 Time: 00:00:00  Posted By: Jan

[Someone reprimanded me for thinking that the problems between Zuma and Mbeki will result in a Black Civil war or that it would benefit us Whites in any way.

Let me clarify some of my thoughts on the matter.

The Political Left completely dominates SA Politics. I cannot see any real benefits for us. I can”t see any ANC split which will result in any change in policy towards us. It does not matter who wins.

But, what I do hope for, is the first ever, truly big split to hit the ANC. There have been many rumours of splits – for the last 10 years – but none actually occurred.

To me, it really doesn”t get better than this. What we have is a fall-out between the #1 & #2 men. What more can one hope for?

The issue is not so much – how this will benefit us in the short term. I am thinking long-term. It appears to me, that Blacks have a tendency to generate ever increasing tension among themselves once they are left alone. Look for example, across Africa, at how Blacks are struggling to just stop killing each other. There are no White people involved. Its Black on Black. Blacks are having fall-outs with each other, new bitternesses are being created. Blacks just seem to me to be more and more incapable of living with each other and progressing. Indeed, these days, I”m starting to put forward the thought that perhaps if the Blacks are left alone for another 50-100 years, we will see countries falling apart and falling into the hands of ever smaller groups. I am starting to think that Blacks will not be able to retain control of the nations which they inherited at independence.

I would like to remind people that history could be repeating itself before our very eyes. Remember, when a few Whites came to Africa, the Blacks never united against us. Indeed, it appears to me that Blacks were so distrustful of each other that they trusted our forefathers more than they trusted their own Black brothers.

So I am wondering if Blacks will once more end up fighting each other so much that it will eventually give us an opportunity to reassert ourselves somewhere in Africa? (I”m talking very long term here).

Blacks seems to have a problem getting along with each other, and it could be that Mbeki may have done a thing which will rebound on them.

Consider this: Zuma is going to be charged in court, and I have no doubt, that they will have truckloads of evidence to prove that he is corrupt.

In the first days after Zuma was fired, he was still the #2 man in the ANC itself. Mbeki never fired him out of the ANC. But now he has asked for them to remove him – and they did. But for a day or two, Zuma was talking about challenging Mbeki for control of the ANC in 2007. That”s a pretty serious ambition. Its not just anyone who could be in a position to do that. Ok… now that option is formally gone…

But think of the other possibilities. Zuma has said he was treated unfairly in the ANC. He has never explained that. But I am sure he will.

Also, even though they are out to prove how “corrupt” he was, as my good friend Dr Chris Jordaan said: “What about Mandela and Yasoob?” In what way is that different to Zuma and Shabir Shaik? So, the point is… even if Zuma was corrupt… the question is: WHO WAS NOT CORRUPT?

Patricia De Lille of the ID, said that when the arms deal was raised, originally, there was a big list of names of people who she believes should all have ended up in court. But why was it only Shabir Shaik (with the convenient airing of Zuma”s dirty laundry) who ended up in court?

Why didn”t the many other corrupt ANC MP”s end up in court?

As Dr Mulder of the Freedom Front said (and even Dr Blade Nzimande of the SA Communist Party said the same) – If there was a prima facie case against Zuma so long ago – why was he only charged with it today?

There are various issues here:-

Is Zuma really the only corrupt person in the ANC? I very much doubt that. So what is stopping Zuma from airing the dirty laundry of other people?

Zuma was an insider. He spent his entire life serving the ANC. Zuma must know a lot of things which can hurt the ANC.

If they haul Zuma before a court (and they said they are still investigating him – despite all the evidence they already have) – it is most likely that they will burn him and destroy him. But, when he”s been burned and he”s lost everything – what has he got to lose? Then he can stand up and fire broadsides at them using all his insider knowledge.

Mbeki has done a terrible thing by planting a doubt in the mind of the Zulus. They are after all the most populous single tribe in this country – plus they are very proud of their traditions. The thought Mbeki has planted in their minds is that a Zulu will not be allowed to be the President of this country. That one thought… is a very deadly thought. It is a thought that will strike a chord with the Zulus.

Some of you may remember some years back, after I started the website, for a while I was involved with some young Zulus who called themselves the NMDC. I sat with those young Zulus a lot. One of them had even stood for election under the DA banner at one time. Those young Zulus often spoke to me about the “Xhosa conspiracy” in the ANC. Those young Zulus told me that many Zulus did not trust the ANC and they thought of it as a Xhosa organisation. Back then, the Zulus were already talking about being alienated by the ANC.

Now they have fuel for their paranoia… lots of fuel for their paranoia… valid fuel…

Mbeki broke a sacrosanct rule when he fired Zuma without first consulting the SA Communist Party and COSATU. COSATU, especially is very angry about this.

Mbeki has the power – and he has the structures in place, to send people out to the “people” to convince them how right he was. But how effective will this damage control be? I don”t think this damage-control will satisy everyone – especially many Zulus. There is too much evidence, right from within the ranks of the Blacks, showing that Mbeki broke the Alliance rules when dealing with Zuma. Why? What was Mbeki hiding? It shows premeditation.

Remember, for months, during the trial of Shabir Shaik, many newspapers hinted that there were bigger fish to fry – and everyone was hinting at Zuma. Even Shabir Shaik”s lawyers said it in court. It was no secret. Everyone was waiting for the fall-out to hit Zuma. Shaik said that this case was not really about him – and that he was the pawn for Mbeki to get Zuma. I agree. And I think many are going to see this.

Here are some of the possibilities I imagine could come from this:-

1. If they destroy Zuma, Zuma might turn on the ANC, and he might be able to form his own political party and draw some people away from the ANC. Zuma will have nothing to lose – with his back against the wall – he can shoot back. He can expose things about Mbeki and the ANC which will hurt them.

2. Zuma can fuel the Zulu paranoia that there is no place for them inside the existing order.

3. Is it possible that when Zuma fights back, that he will grab supporters from both the ANC and the IFP thereby becoming a whole new force in S.African politics?

4. I can”t see the ANC walking out of this completely unscathed. There is going to have to be some kind of damage done to it.

5. Zuma might end up like Patricia De Lille – with his own political party (unless he joins another party).

Think back to Zimbabwe. The MDC of today was created by the Zimbabwean equivalent of COSATU. The MDC is composed of people who were formerly insiders and on the side of Mugabe. The MDC comes from the left of the political spectrum. What is stopping this Zuma fall-out from resulting in a similar situation here in S.Africa? Maybe he won”t be a big force – but nevertheless, he could cause some kind of break away – even a small-scale breakaway from the ANC?

UNLESS… the ANC can find some way of preventing Zuma from fighting back. But so far, there seems to be some hope that he is not finished and that he will not take this lying down. Unless… the ANC can exert some kind of hold on him to shut him up?

Even if Zuma does not return to politics – what is the bet, that Zuma”s loss will cost the ANC some Zulu supporters who will switch their votes elsewhere?

The bottom line, in my view, is that this can only result in some kind of bad blood, recriminations, and maybe some kind of a war of words over the long term – and all the participants will be in the ANC or in the Tripartite Alliance. It can only cause rifts, hatred, bitterness and anger.

It will not stop so-called Land Reform.

It will not stop Affirmative Action.

It will not stop Blacks from trying to sideline us Whites.

BUT… it will cause bitterness and divisions and hatreds which could last for very many years. My view therefore is that anything which upsets the ANC”s equalibrium and causes problems for it can only be for our good – even if we don”t see any large-scale benefits. I am also going to watch how the Communists position themselves on this one.

The most hopeful thing for me, is seeing the ANC MONOPOLY being shaken. That is excellent. We are only in our eleventh year of Black Rule, and this could be a political earthquake… the first shaking of the foundations of our One Party Dictatorship. And I like that. It shows that the ANC is not invincible. We are seeing the first crack… Let”s hope there are more. S.Africa is a complicated country, and that gives me hope that the ANC will never be able to control this country as firmly as Mugabe does Zimbabwe. Jan]

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