WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.
Original Post Date: 2008-05-10 Time: 00:00:00 Posted By: Jan
I’m quite excited. With my interest in the Gold price, and the markets, I’m trying my hand at investing more actively than I’ve done in prior years.
For more than the last 20 years I’ve always read of other people’s methods, research and ideas.
Now I hit on the idea of doing something myself. I have been wanting to do some simple predictions myself. I did a statistical exercise this last week to try and predict, one day in advance, what the prices of 5 stocks would do. The stocks were the Dow Jones Industrial index, a Gold ETF (which reflects Gold movements), and some other stocks and indexes. Each day I made 5 predictions for the next day.
Out of 15 predictions (3 days), I got 11 right! I was able to call whether the next day’s movements would be up or down, and I was right 73% of the time! Statistially, I should have been right 50% of the time. What I was curious about was whether my analysis would allow me to improve my chances of calling it correctly.
So this has now got me very excited because my methods will work for anything – whether it is currencies, or stocks or indexes – it does not matter.
Making a prediction 1 day in advance may not seem all that sexy, but, try it for yourself with any stock or index and see how well you do. It is very tricky actually. Prices jump up and down in a most bizarre way.
Now I want to try more sophisticated analyses to see what comes out of them.
What is also great about my method is that I can prove to myself, statistically, whether the method has any merit.
I will play with this more over the coming weeks and if I have something to show for it, I will run some experiments on the website making daily predictions beforehand and you will be able to assess it for yourself.