‘Zimbabwe Today’ by Robb WJ Ellis (28-04-2008)

I think the only thing that shocked me was the fact that the masquerade was allowed to go on for ten months.

But what has this to do with today’s dilemma?

I have always believed that the recount and the holding back of the Presidential elections has been another time-wasting exercise…

“A disputed recount in Zimbabwe‘s elections that was widely expected to overturn an opposition victory in parliament was in fact aimed at securing the presidency through violence, political analysts say.

Many observers were surprised when officials on Saturday conceded that President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU PF party had lost control of parliament for the first time in 28 years, ever since independence from Britain.

But the political analysts on Sunday said the partial recount demanded by ZANU PF after the March 29 parliamentary elections was in fact aimed at staving off a second round in the presidential vote to secure a Mugabe victory.

Parliamentary, presidential and local elections were held on the same day, but the result of the presidential election has never been made public, with officials saying that no candidate had won outright.“

And I look at the threat of ZANU PF – with the shipment of arms in Angola, the Angolan army on standby to come to Mugabe’s assistance – and the belief that there are two plane loads of ‘more sophisticated’ weapons that were meant to have been flown into Harare last week…

I worry about the idea that Zimbabwe could very easily slip into a civil war.

And should that happen, we must look at laying the blame at not only Mugabe,s door, but also at the slow reaction by the African Union and the United Nations. In today’s podcast I talk about the Charter of both organisations…

“It is clear that the recount was a tactical retreat meant to re-organise, re-strategise and galvanise diminishing support through violence,” Takura Zhangazha, a Harare-based political commentator, told AFP.

The Zimbabwean African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) party “is now more concerned about the presidential outcome than the parliamentary results,” Zhangazha said.

“In the event of a run-off, the strategy is to ensure that there is limited access to some rural areas through violence.“

I tend to agree, though the only advantage that I see for Mugabe hanging on to power is to protect his and the military chiefs’ skins for their crimes against the Zimbabwean people.

“Lovemore Madhuku, a lawyer and constitutional activist, agreed, saying: “It’s actually showing the desperation of ZANU PF. They wanted to buy time.“

The other thing, of course, is Mugabe’s belief that possession is nine tenths of the law…

And I am not the only one who thinks that Zimbabwe be on the verge of civil war…

“Zimbabwe could soon be in the throes of a civil war. It has emerged that supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who have been victims of attacks from armed militia and law enforcement agencies, have begun to retaliate.

Human Rights Watch in Zimbabwe said that, for the first time, it had documented several incidents of violence by supporters of the MDC. But it said the scope of those incidents was incomparable to those perpetrated by the state security agents and ZANU PF militia.

Human Rights Watch warned that the emergence of “tit-for-tat retaliatory attacks” between ZANU PF and MDC supporters would escalate the violence.

A report in The Zimbabwean on Friday said army barracks across the country were now issuing war veterans and former military and police officers with AK-47 assault rifles.“

I am very uneasy with these reports – although I fully understand the need to defend yourself from unprovoked attacks.

Let’s remember that Mugabe has at least 28 years of experience of this sort of thing. And numerous years before then as a ‘freedom fighter’ leader during the savage bush war in Rhodesia.

I go back to my earlier assertion over the weekend of ‘death by democracy’.

Of course, if the MDC was , or is, retaliating, then this will add fuel to the fire as ZANU PF will tell the world that the violence is started by them. The truth on the ground is obviously different, but when we look at a country like Zimbabwe, where international reporters are banned, and those that do make it in under cover are arrested for ‘committed journalism’, then we must realise that the whole thing is lopsided and the truth remains hidden in muddied water.

“The official line is that they need to protect themselves against anticipated attacks by the MDC and its foreign supporters, particularly on former white-owned farms. But the real intention is to use the weapons against opposition supporters in the rural areas,” the report said.

“MDC supporters in Masvingo and Mashonaland East provinces have organised themselves into local defence units to fight back violence and intimidation by war veterans, military personnel and ZANU PF militia.”

On Thursday, there were “fierce battles” in the village of Makaha in Mashonaland East as MDC supporters repelled an attack by ZANU PF.

“Reports are still coming in but indications are that ZANU militiamen were badly mauled,” The Zimbabwean reported.“

All I can say is that I do not blame the MDC activists for defending themselves. The Zimbabwean people have been on the receiving end for many more years than we realise – and I know, from personal experience, that Zimbabweans (of all colours, creeds, religions and tribe) are God-fearing people who just want to live peaceably, without daily struggle.

“COSATU on Saturday described the Zimbabwe election crisis as an “abortion of democracy in Africa“, and called for civil action worldwide to end the rule of the “illegal ZANU PF regime”.

“War has been declared on unarmed citizens. People are being assaulted, homes burned and people killed. This is all state sponsored,” said Zwelinzima Vavi, the Cosatu general secretary.

“We need to send out a clear, decisive message that this regime cannot be tolerated in Africa.

“They have staged a coup d’etat – refused to play the game according to the rules and assembled in defiance of what people voted on March 29.“

The part of this article that I appreciate the most, read: “Look at Chinamasa, parading as a Zimbabwe government minister, attending SADC meetings, being quoted in the media as a minister – yet he lost his parliamentary seat in the election, as did three quarters of other senior ZANU PF leaders.“

In the absence of any other interested party, government of country taking the Zimbabwean crisis to the United Nations Security Council – and seeing the the MDC is the official democratically elected government of Zimbabwe and therefore has the mandate of the people – I believe that this is the right move.

My concern is that the US Security Council will drag its feet in any reaction.

“Zimbabwe‘s opposition Movement for Democratic Change will take its claim of victory in last month’s election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council this week, the party said Sunday.

MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti will lead a delegation to New York, where he will tell a Security Council session on Zimbabwe‘s post-election standoff that the party is not prepared to partake in a second round, an MDC statement said.

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai claims he won the March 29 election outright, a claim ZANU PF rejects, saying neither he nor Mugabe won an outright majority and that a run-off is needed.

The official results have not yet been released but the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission said it would begin verifying and collating results from a partial recount of the votes on Monday, sparking fresh hopes that the outcome might shortly be known.“

The biggest problem right now is that the ballot boxes containing the votes have been held by ZANU PF for the thick end of a month is an undisclosed location and they have had all of that time to re-engineer the vote to force a run-off.

Mugabe and his cohorts will do whatever it takes to hang on to power, because they are aware their very freedoms rely on ZANU PF control. The Security Council must ensure that they only look at the constituted stipulations – not the brazen holding back of the results by the ZEC under ZANU PF instruction.

ZANU PF are no longer in control – yet they continue to dictate the day-to-day events in Zimbabwe.

As a matter of interest – just who runs Zimbabwe today? A President that has not got the peoples’ mandate and a cabinet appointed by that illegal President – thereby negating the legality of that re-appointment.

“A partial recount of some seats in the parliamentary election showed the MDC retaining it majority over ZANU PF, which was relegated to a minority party for the first time since coming to power at independence in 1980.

The MDC won 109 seats in the 210-seat House of Assembly in the first count of votes, against 97 for ZANU PF.“

The talk of a government of ‘national unity’ will not wash with the people. Mugabe ran (ruined more like it) the country for 28 years and never allowed any opposition MP to hold anything approaching a position of authority and they were treated as ‘has-beens’ and ‘also rans’… The need for ZANU PF to have a say in Parliament is necessitated by their need to cover their own backs – nothing more.

This is a party running scared.

“Tsvangirai’s party had feared ZANU PF might try to claw back parliament by rigging the recount but with 18 of 23 seats recounted the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) said there had been “no major changes.“

The end must be close and all Zimbabweans, the world over, must be readying themselves for some sort of celebration.

The United Nations Security Council must be prepared to intervene if Angla look to get involved in the Zimbabwean crisis.

There are at least two concerns with Angola. Firstly, the presence of the ship loaded with weapons in Luanda.

Secondly, the reports that Angolan armed forces are standing by to assist mugabe, if required.

“Media in Angola report that Mugabe™s Rural Housing and Social Amenities minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa and Defense Minister Sydney Sekeramayi arrived in the country on Friday morning, in the capacity of special envoy of Mugabe.

ANGOP learnt at “4 de Fevereiro” International Airport, moments after his arrival, that the envoy is the bearer of a message of President Mugabe to his Angolan counterpart, Jose Eduardo dos Santos.

Minister Emmerson Munangagwa, is accompanied by the Minister of Defence Sydney Sekeramayi.

The Chinese ship An Yue Jiang has been given permission to dock in Angola, but it will not be allowed to offload the weapons.“

I have no doubt in my mind that these two men are in Angola to attempt to effect some sort of change – in Zimbabwe. We should also bear in mind that ZANU PF do not have the authority to send these men as representatives of the people to Angola.

They are not Ministers in the cabinet as the re-appointed cabinet is illegal.

Therefore, their authority is illegal. And Angola has to be aware of that…

I do not doubt this story for one minute. Mugabe has not been in control of the illegal ZANU PF government for the last month. His activities are dictated the military junta of Constantine Chiwenga (army), Augustine Chihuri (police), Perence Shiri (air force) and Paradzai Zimondi (prisons). And Happyton Bonyongwe (CIO). These are the men in Zimbabwe that stand to lose the most in the event that the MDC is allowed to take the popular mandate.

“Officials of the ruling ZANU PF party say President Robert Mugabe is no longer fully in control, with much of the government™s day-to-day affairs being run by military and security chiefs.

Senior ZANU PF insiders have told IWPR that Mugabe is now out of touch with what is happening on the ground.

Instead, they said, key decisions were being made by the Joint Operations Command, JOC, which consists of the heads of the army, air force, prison services and intelligence.

The JOC, which is chaired by the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, General Constantine Chiwenga, coordinates military and security affairs and many observers believe it carries more real clout than the cabinet.

Their ties with Mugabe date back to the liberation struggle of the Seventies.“

This is the reason why the situation in Zimbabwe has taken on scenes of violence. Because the people in charge know nothing more than beating the will of ZANU PF into the people. And by throwing violence at the people, they are able to protect their own positions, and with it, their freedom (if being a member of a ZANU PF military junta can be classed as ‘freedom’…).

“Mugabe was willing to step down. He had actually indicated that he would retire to his rural home and his Borrowdale mansion and hand over power to Tsvangirai, if people voted for him,” said one official. “He even said he was willing to surrender his fate to Tsvangirai, to do whatever he wanted with him.“

“However, the army generals and commanders told him that if he did (resign), it would leave them with no other choice but to take over the country. What a lot of people have missed is that Mugabe agreed to avoid a bloody coup by the military. It was better him than the military taking over.”

Chiwenga and retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi, head of the penal service, vowed before the election that they would never salute anyone but him as president. Police chief Augustine Chihuri also said he would not accept an opposition victory.

A day after the election, a crisis meeting of army and security chiefs was held to discuss how to prevent the opposition taking over as it became apparent that Mugabe might have lost to Tsvangirai.

Regime figures do not trust Tsvangirai, fearing that if he came to power he would prosecute senior officials for human rights abuses committed over the years.“

Take care.

‘debvhu