WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.
Original Post Date: 2008-03-14 Time: 00:00:00 Posted By: Jan
I have been watching the KrugerRand coins with great interest. My thesis for the last few months has been that KrugerRands could be the best way to survive the problems hitting us inside this country and also the USA.
Subprime is a serious problem in the USA. Most economists now say there is a recession.
I see some really big companies are battling and are on the verge of folding in the USA.
In South Africa the Rand has plunged since January from about R6.70 to the US Dollar down to almost R8.00 to the US Dollar. In January when FirstRand predicted that many people did not believe it was possible. FirstRand’s worst prediction was that by year end the Rand could hit R9 to the US Dollar. All this was before the MASSIVE PANIC AND MASSIVE CONFIDENCE LOSS of the Eskom power blackouts.
Here are past articles about the Rand:-
S.Africa: The Rand will continue to fall until 2011 (& that’s the optimistic version!!)
South Africa may be facing a DOUBLE Economic Whammy… or a THIRD too…
S.Africa: The Rand’s future over the next few years – R15 to $1 by 2018?
Take a look at the graph below. If you look closely at this graph’s major trendline. If you extrapolate the line for about 10 years, to 2018, then the Rand/Dollar rate could be R18 to the US Dollar. (Of course there are reasons to suppose this could be worse).
Below is the state of the S.African current a/c deficit before the massive Eskom electricity crisis. NB: Out of historical interest, look at the graph below. Prior to 1994 when the ANC took over, South Africa had a surplus on its current a/c. Ever since 1994 there has been a deficit and that deficit has grown at a shocking pace in the last 2 years.
(Source for the above graphs: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page8…)
So on the one hand, the Rand is collapsing rapidly. It is already on the brink of R8 to a US dollar. So FirstRand’s worst case scenario of R9 to the US Dollar this year is looking ever more possible and you never know if, under certain circumstances IT MIGHT BE EXCEEDED.
Now let’s look at Gold. Gold has reached $1,000 an ounce.
The KrugerRand price is calculated as: Rand/Dollar Rate X Gold price.
According to my records, on 2008/01/07, KrugerRands were selling for R6000 each. Now, they are above R7,500 each. That is a 25% rise in 3 months!
The way the Gold price is currently, and the way the Rand is currently, we are on the verge of the KrugerRands hitting R8,000 a piece.
However, wilder things are within the realm of possibility.
In October 2007, I mentioned that KrugerRands could shoot up. I mentioned the prediction that Gold could reach $1,200-$1,600 per Oz. See: Gold: Expect it to reach: $1,200-$1,600 per ounce Gordon had told me that Gold could read $1,200 by the end of 2008. (I did also post some Gold predictions from cycle theories – the one with a red-line shows Gold shooting up until March 2008 before crashing down. See: [7 Graphs] Gold Cycles as analysed in 2007).
If 2 things occur:-
1. Rand drops to R9 to a US Dollar by year end.
2. Gold rises above $1,000 and reaches $1,200 by year end.
Then, KrugerRands could hit a stunning all time high: 9 x 1200 = R10,800.
If the above happens, then a KrugerRand could race from the current level, just below R8,000 – all the way to over R10,000 each.
That would be a more than 25% gain over the current price of a KrugerRand.
There is no certainty that this scenario could occur… but I think that it is within the realm of possibility. If so, this could turn out to be one of the most stunning years the KrugerRand has ever experienced.
If it reaches R10,000 each, from a starting point of R6,000 at the start of the year, it would be an appreciation of: 66%.
So there is the possibility of a 25(43)+% rise left in the KrugerRand.
We will have to keep watching it.