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Original Post Date: 2007-12-04 Time: 00:00:00 Posted By: Jan
A Liberal buddy of mine sent me this. I think he’s smoking his socks. These white Liberal males I know have their heads in the clouds (or elsewhere!). You’d be surprised at some of the junk I hear from some of them.
This trick below has been hinted at in some news reports. He wrote:-
Hi Jan
The issue of a third candidate still pops up every now and then.
Do you think there is a possibility that at the back of in his Machiavellian mind TM (Thabo Mbeki) has a sneaky little plan (knowing all the while that JZ (Jacob Zuma) was going to get lots of votes which is why he raised the possibility of a third term so long ago as to build up the tension) to cause so much chaos and division within the party by his nomination, that the wiser heads in the party will be only to happy (and desperate for the sake of the party) to come up and push for (even insist on) a compromise third candidate (suitable to TM) at the last minute to restore some semblance of unity and for the outside image of the party???? At the last minute both TM and JZ announce they are withdrawing and an unopposed candidate gets elected and the outside world says hip hip hoorah and SA’s image gets a helluva boost overseas and for a short while the SA way of doing things is shown up as the way to go and we reclaim a bit of the moral high ground. It’s the kind of scenario a major company in distress would die for to boost its shares on the stock market.
It would, however, have to be a person that would have a favourable image overseas and not just someone coming in purely as a compromise. So I rule out the secretary-general (don’t know how to spell his name). And even though TM favours ex-Mrs (even though he backs her as deputy pres, I doubt whether she has an international punch. Who does that leave us with???
Tokyo isn’t all that popular amongst the rank and file and they wouldn’t readily accept him. It may even be Cyril at last, after all he was supposed to have had the job 10 years ago. And despite his billions, he probably still has union and rank-and-file roots, after all his money hasn’t come from the oppressive mining industry. If that were to happen, the shares of ANC (Pty) Ltd and SA Inc would soar immensely.
There will have to be a lot of behind the scenes wheeling and dealing to pull this one off – what will they offer JZ as a sweetener???
After all, the party does come first, doesn’t it (or so they say it is supposed to)!!!
For your prediction scenarios!!! Can I be off the wall Probability 70 per cent
Hi D,
I’ve seen some vague hints of what you mention. But to be frank I think you’re off the wall on this one. (Yes, its the perfect type of thing for my Prediction Experiment, which I really must get online by early January 2008).
I think there are many aspects to this scenario. You make it sound like simple ANC wheeling and dealing and people being bought off.
As much as I completely hate the ANC, I think they do have some kind of “principles”. I think that the Far Left really does believe in its stupid mission to bring about socialism. So I don’t think Jacob Zuma and those guys can just be bought off. I think that they really are fighting OVER STRATEGY ISSUES. I think they all do have a loyalty to the ANC. Their whole lives and futures depend on the ANC. If the ANC dies… then they’re destroyed. So I think they really are fighting over STRATEGY, TACTICS AND VALUES and they are disagreeing over the strategy that is best for the ANC’s future survival and consequently theirs. There is no great “guiding mind”… and so they’re haggling.
In my view, guys like Vavi and Jacob Zuma are closer to the ANC’s original pricnciples and that gives them the edge. This morning on my website I wrote a piece wherein I said I think that DEEP DOWN NELSON MANDELA KNOWS/HOPES/SUPPORTS JACOB ZUMA for a victory.
The strategy you describe is very sophisticated… and I’d buy it if I thought the whole ANC split was just engineered. For years when the Mass Media said there was a split, I disagreed. But this time I think there is a split and it is DEEP AND SERIOUS.
I think this split might even be so bad that the rift might just grow wider and will never be healed – EVER.
The Trade Unions used to support Robert Mugabe. Now the Trade Unions are behind his opposition. That proves to me that the Left and Far Left can be divided completely.
I actually like the way things are going in the ANC. I think this is bitter and mean and nasty. The whole “Third Candidate” seems to have failed. My money was on Ramaphosa as the “Third Candidate”. He was the most popular person in the ANC next to Nelson Mandela himself. If Ramaphosa could not gain a following now… then who else can?
I think the issues are DEEPER THAN PERSONALITY. I think the Mass Media talks out their asses when they blame Mbeki’s personality. Its got nothing to do with personality. This is about strategy. It is a genuine and valid argument and disagreement over the BEST WAY FORWARD.
It is no different to whites who choose to be Liberal and whites who are Conservative. It has to do with underlying beliefs, values, etc.
I think the problem in the ANC is Mbeki. I think Mbeki is “the West’s man” in the ANC. I think Mbeki is out of step with the ANC’s real communist roots. He’s been trying to do things differently… and the rest of the ANC is getting sick of this nonsense. They want to go FAR LEFT which is what the original plan was.
I think Mbeki is pragmatic, in the same sense that Mugabe is. Mugabe was a “good guy” for 20 years before he nearly lost power and then had to pull out all the stops.
I’ll be most surprised if your prediction is correct. But in the future, we must definitely put things like this on The Prediction Experiment. Jan.