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S.Africa: The JSE’s hidden bear – The Bull Market is OVER

WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.

Original Post Date: 2007-12-02 Time: 00:00:00  Posted By: Jan

[Here is a very good analysis of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the mid and smaller capitalised companies which were responsible for the bull run. Jan]

Strip out the JSE’s large dual-listed stocks, and the bull market looks a lot more fragile than it has in previous years.

Peter Major, an analyst at Cadiz (JSE:CDZ), says that the JSE’s small- and mid-cap sectors are down about 15% to 20% off their highs when compared with the All Share Index. So while the stock market roared through 30 000 points on Friday, the strong performance hasn’t been across the board. Indeed, most of Friday’s gains could be accounted for by the JSE’s largest listed stock, Anglo American (JSE:AGL), which rose 6% on the day.

If one looks past the major dual-listed stocks, such as Anglo, BHP Billiton (JSE:BIL), Richemont (JSE:RHC), SABMiller (JSE:SAB) and Liberty International (JSE:LBT), the remainder of the market is taking some pain, which is in some part due to rising inflation and a corresponding rise in interest rates.

The prices of the dual-listed giants are set in foreign markets, and are to a large extent immune to the South African interest rate environment, says Major. These stocks account for more than half the value of the JSE.

Major notes that the JSE’s small- and mid-cap sectors have outperformed the All Share Index by a handsome margin over the past three-and-a-half years. However, if one looks at their performance in recent months, they haven’t kept up with the All Share Index.

“They’re indicating that this market has peaked and that the bull market’s peaked,” noted Major on the Moneyweb Power Hour Friday night.

Ebrahim Ally, head of South African Institutional Client Support Services at the Oasis Group sounds a similar note of caution, and urges South African investors to buy into overseas markets, if they haven’t already done so.

He notes that the South African market is currently on a forward price:earnings (PE) multiple of 15 times while overseas markets appear cheaper. The UK has a forward PE multiple of 12,6 times, the Eurozone 13,4 times and Germany 13,2 times, said Ally on the Power Hour.

On of the ways for a private investor to gain offshore exposure to European markets, is through the Itrix Euro and UK exchange traded funds (JSE:ITXUK and JSE:ITXEU).

Major says he’s been watching these two funds, which expose investors to baskets of blue-chip European stocks. “It’s pretty impressive how much our market has beatem them so much in the last few months, but that might mean it’s actually an ideal time to get them,” he says. “You’re getting them cheaper than you probably have in the past few months.”

Source: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page66?oid=173791&sn=Detail