[Yesterday in one of my posts, I mentioned learning the lessons of the Rhodesian airforce. Then a friend of mine wrote to me saying that these lessons applied of course to anti-insurgency warfare.

I then explained to him that in my view, the next wars in Africa will not be insurgencies, but civil wars.

Take Iraq for example. The USA has very advanced, very high tech equipment, and even the mighty USA cannot dominate Iraq with 20 million people. What is the problem?

The problem is, history repeating itself. Prior to the French Revolution, armies were “small & high tech”. They were professional, and they generally did not fight too many pitched battles.

Then the French revolution came along, and the French in sheer desperation called up masses of troops, armed them simply, and created a massive militia which then went on to drown these smaller professional armies. And thus they entered an era of mass warfare – because those larger, but lower-tech armies, were actually deadlier.

Here in the 21st century, we are back to the same old thing. Tiny armies, super-high tech, but they lack “volume”. Because the USA lacks volume, it cannot dominate even Iraq. But you cannot have high tech AND volume because not even the USA can afford that. So the answer is, low tech and volume.

So I said to my friend that Mugabe may have a few dozen tanks, and a few dozen modern jets, but in reality, those forces mean nothing. If you had a large, low-tech army, armed with modern infantry weapons (rifles, machine guns and RPG7’s) – you would actually have a very deadly force.

Assuming that Mugabe even has the money to get his aircraft refuelled and into the air, even then, they mean little. Even his tanks mean little. His actual army is about 30,000 strong. He would need to arm a mass of militia if he wanted to stave off defeat – but even that can be overcome.

And that brought my friend and I back to our discussion on tactics, and the development of low-tech weapons for wars in the Third World. The USA should be doing something like this in Iraq… but I doubt they will.

I pointed him to a specific era of modern history, which I believe is applicable to wars in the Third World. I told him that you could virtually go, and pick up a history book, and dust it off, and in there, you would see the weaponry and tactics which could be used NOW, which would win wars in the Third World – en masse. You do not need very complicated weaponry, to truly pack a deadly punch.

High Tech weaponry anyway has little value in Africa because high tech weaponry needs lots of infrastructure and backup and know-how. None of these exist in Africa.

What you need to do is revisit the world of improvisation. Taking ordinary devices and putting them to military use. There is lots of modern technology out there which actually could have a military value – if only you knew what to hook up to what.

Take modern African wars for example. How many times have you seen this simple improvisation: A pickup truck with a heavy machinegun mounted on the back. It has no armour, and no protection for the gunner. But do you realise how many weapons you can create, at relatively low cost, if you put your mind to it?

Then… you throw a couple of geeks into the mix, stir, and you might even find yourself with some amazing new weapons… all created at low cost, and which have practical battlefield applications.

You mix in some improvised mobile weaponry with your massed infantry army… and you’ll have an army capable of overrunning and smashing everything Robert Mugabe and his friends could throw at it.

In the 21st century we are actually about to re-learn the lessons of 200 years ago. I reckon that these small, high-tech armies, are going to be no match, for a bigger, volume-based, low-tech army. And there are many wars out there in the world, just waiting for this approach… and many victories are waiting to by won. And this is how Robert Mugabe and his scum could be crushed out of existence for once an for all. I believe that TOTAL VICTORY against Robert Mugabe is possible. The problem lies in getting the right structure together and getting some Govt to finance it… and then… poof… like Magic, Robert Mugabe and his scum will vanish from the face of the Earth! Jan]