[This is fascinating. I am watching with great interest the Russian posturing in the Middle East. Is this a bluff? And what exactly will Russia do? Will it send troops and aircraft into its proxy allies – Syria and Iran? The thing to watch for is if the Russians actually begin sending troops into those countries to fight Americans directly. Or if the Russians are willing to send in aircraft to fight American planes directly.

At the moment, this is talk and posturing. The question is whether/when the Russians will be willing to “draw a line in the sand”.

From my own assessment of the situation, I would say that the terrain, size and location of Iran is such that a major stand could be made there. If Russia, Syria, Iran and Pakistan stood together – the USA would have a massive war on their hands. But America also has a way of twisting arms, and we will have to see how they manage it.

I am still thinking in terms of the “Strategic Trap” which I have written about for years. 2006-2008 could be very interesting. We might see some serious increases in the intensity of the wars there. Jan]

20/12/2005 20:41 MOSCOW, December 20 (RIA Novosti) – Russia will take Syria’s side if charges against Syrian officials with involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri cause a conflict between the United States and Syria, two Russian parliamentary members said Tuesday.

“If Russia is to choose between its two strategic allies, it will undoubtedly take Syria’s side,” said Shamil Sultanov, a coordinator of an inter-faction association, Russia and the Islamic World: A Strategic Dialogue.

Nikolai Leonov, a member of parliament’s security committee, who had recently visited Syria along with Sultanov and other MPs, said it was primarily beneficial for the U.S. to accuse Syria of murdering Hariri. “Indeed, Syria is an excellent oil corridor with access to deep-water Mediterranean ports. Besides, this is a good pretext to distract the world community’s attention from the events in Iraq,” the MP said.

Leonov said earlier that he was concerned that Syria could face the Iraqi scenario.

In October, an international commission chaired by Detlev Mehlis delivered a report to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and members of the Security Council suggesting that high-ranking Syrian and Lebanese officials had been involved in the February 14 killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Syria said the report was politically motivated and inaccurate.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051220/42587105.html
(194)Â 2005 “RIA Novosti”