[I have lots of respect for John Robertson in Zim. He tells it like it is. As he rightly points out – how will Mugabe repay the money which is loaned by S.Africa? Of course he is right – Zimbabwe can’t repay it.

But as I have been saying for some weeks however, don’t expect repayment. Zimbabwe is a bottomless pit, and the ANC knows it. But I believe the ANC will bail Mugabe out regardless. This is why I said, Mugabe is like a dead weight around the ANC’s neck. They will be flinging good money after bad.

Personally I would love to see Mugabe not just out of power – but dead and rotting. However, I don’t think the ANC will allow Mugabe’s stupid fake Government to fall. So I think it is very likely that they will give him what he needs – and nothing we do or say will change their minds. The clear logic, and factual statements by the Zimbabwean economists will be completely ignored.

However, there is a bigger issue at stake. If the ANC bails Mugabe out this time, it is only a matter of time before he needs more money. The Zim economy is shot to hell, and so I think, S.Africa will need to constantly bail him out. The ANC will have to throw billions and billions of Rands into a bottomless pit.

It appears also, that ANC officials will begin “investing” in Zimbabwe and starting to buy up business assets in Zimbabwe in exchange for this. All this is fine. It still does not change any of Zimbabwe’s economic realities. Mugabe has destroyed the economy, and he will need billions, not just to keep going, but billions more to fix it. This is a very big burden to bear – even for a country as powerful as S.Africa.

I stand by my conclusion in a previous article that Mugabe might be the Ulcer which bleeds the ANC to death. So I think it is EXCELLENT that the ANC might want to throw billions of rands into that hell hole of Mugabe’s because there is a 100% chance that it is money completely wasted. The ANC officials can “invest” in Zimbabwe all they want because they will be buying up the empty shell of a destroyed Marxist experiment.

Then there is the political and worldwide fall-out which will come from all manner of quarters against the ANC if they prop Mugabe up.

All I have to say is: More! More! More! Keep it coming… because this could cripple and hurt the ANC more than they can imagine.

I do not believe that S.Africa can keep Mugabe in power indefinitely either. Let the ANC prop Mugabe up all they want – because it is going to hurt them a *LOT* and will cost them dearly.

It brings me back to the concept that Anti-Mugabe forces in Zim should ally themselves in S.Africa with anti-ANC forces. This is a natural alliance, and it could bear a lot of fruit. Mugabe is extremely unpopular in S.Africa, and one of the best places for anti-Mugabe forces to spread their message is right here in S.Africa. Jan]

South Africa should tell Zimbabwe to get its economic-political house in order before bailing out its cash-strapped neighbour.

This was the warning on Tuesday from Harare economists as Pretoria stayed mum about the R6-billion lifeline President Robert Mugabe has asked for.

Zimbabwean government spokesperson George Charamba referred inquiries regarding the bailout to South African authorities.

‘Mugabe chose to control everything for political reasons’
He added: “Any country needs a bailout”.

Harare-based economist John Robertson wanted to know how Harare would repay a loan because the Zimbabwean economic crisis was not likely to abate soon.

“South Africa should say to Zimbabwe: We want you to change your policies, otherwise we know that you will never be able to repay the money.

“That is what the International Monetary Fund said. South Africa will do Zimbabwe another disservice if it continues to support it without forcing it to change,” said Robertson.

“South Africa is in a good position right now to use its economic muscle to intervene politically,” he added.

‘The government has a limited amount of foreign exchange’
If Zimbabwe did not get any bailout it would go the Somalian route, “where the mockery economy is controlled by warlords. If it were a company I would say it will collapse and South Africa will bear the brunt.”

Robertson said the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe was caused mainly by political interference in the economy through the controversial land grab programme.

“Mugabe chose to control everything for political reasons and has done immense damage to the economy by interfering with the markets.

“The government does not have the power to take on market forces, which are very powerful. Like the force of gravity, if you choose to defy the law of gravity, you are going to get hurt.”

Professor Brian Raftopoulos, a development studies lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, said South Africa had to work out a long-term project to help Zimbabwe to reform its economy.

“The government has a limited amount of foreign exchange to run the economy. The black market is very strong, so you can see that there is a need for economic reform and not just a bailout.”

Jenni Williams, of the women’s empowerment NGO Woza (Women of Zimbabwe Arise), said that besides devastating food shortages, there was a fuel crisis that never seemed to end as well as constant water and electricity cuts.

All basic food stocks were depleted either because there were no supplies in the country or because the four-year-long fuel crisis prevented manufacturers from delivering goods.

Williams said that with the average Zimbabwean earning between R1 000 and R2 000 a month, inflation continued to leave “big dents” in people’s earnings.

“The ordinary person cannot even afford to use public transport to come to town anymore. If you are lucky to find transport, the price may have doubled, so you won’t have money to get home,” Williams said.

This article was originally published on page 6 of The Star on July 20, 2005

Source: Independent Online (IOL)
URL: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click…/p>