I’ve been chatting to some friends about the whole world situation, and I thought I’d say this: It looks to me as if 2005 has the POTENTIAL to be a most “interesting” year… all across the world.

I almost get the feeling… that there’s more tension and stress around than ever before.

On S.African TV they cited some study of 21 nations whereing 58% of respondents said the world was more unsafe since George Bush has been around. Of course… I have a feeling that one should not take these kind of multi-national “George Bush” surveys too seriously.

Nevertheless… I do feel… that there are “so many balls in the air”… that this year is going to be interesting.

I’m currently reading a book about World War II… written by a German General. What struck me as fascinating… was how… Hitler never intended creating a “World War”… Hitler was merely trying his luck… and when he got lucky… He’d try his luck elsewhere. It becomes apparent, that there were no advanced plans of attacking A, B, C, D, etc… Instead… For example… The Germans only invaded France after the unexpected high of the sudden collapse of Poland. Apparently, in October 1940, (one month after Britain declared war on Germany), Hitler actually asked the British for peace – but the British refused.

The Germans didn’t even have an invasion strategy for France… they were busy thinking it up AFTER they had won in Poland. (This is all well-documented in history books anyway).

But what struck me as interesting was the manner in which… one campaign here, another over there… built up… into a situation where eventually it unleashed all hell…

Compare that with Georg Bush in Afghanistan, then Iraq… If he goes further… If he dares to… It could start creating a dynamic… that could get out of control.

And note too… the Germans were much more SUCCESSFUL in the early phases of their war than the Americans are. Really… The Germans took: Austria and Czechoslovakia without hardly firing a shot. The Polish campaign… well… If you think the US Army into Baghdad in 3 weeks was good going… Consider that much of the Polish army (which was far more powerful than Saddam Hussein’s army)… was crushed with 2-3 weeks… The main objectives of the German campaign were achieved within about 2 weeks of the invasion.

The Germans then had a phase where they weren’t sure what to do. The German Army wanted to fight a defensive war against France – they had no plans to attack. But Hitler decided to attack quickly… Hitler’s logic was that Britain and France would need a year to prepare to invade Germany. So Hitler wanted to strike the blow first… It was during this period of “chaos” on the German side over how to deal with France… that Von Manstein, came up with a plan which was sheer brilliance… on how to crush France decisively. When Hitler saw this plan… he loved it… and made it policy…

France… which had a stronger army than Germany… was crushed in 40 days… through brilliant strategy and brilliant tactics.

The bottom line: Between 1938-1940 – in those 3 years… Hitler successfully took over: 4 major countries… And he had no uprisings or problems like the USA has in Iraq. NONE. There was hardly ANY resistance in German-held territories.

Yet… Germany still went on to lose the war…

I hate comparing George Bush to Hitler, because I don’t think they’re the same animal… But my point is that little hodge-podge attacks here and there, and a general rising of tensions, can in due course lead to very serious stuff. And in my view, it will lead to serious stuff at a point when US forces are firmly committed on several fronts and are tied down in several areas simultaneously. At that point… all that’s needed is for major powers like Russia, EU, etc… to start doing other stuff… and then there will be a problem…

I think there’s a lot going on in this world… and my general feeling is that 2005 could result in interesting and unexpected new developments.
Jan