I don’t have a problem with George Bush… because I like most anything that leans towards conservatism… But… I also think the man’s ideals… are going to lead to trouble. On the Drudge Report I read this:-

EXCERPTS FROM THE PRESIDENT™S INAUGURAL ADDRESS
Thu Jan 20 2005 01:07:17 ET

œWe are led, by events and common sense, to one conclusion: The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world.

œAmerica has need of idealism and courage, because we have essential work at home “ the unfinished work of American freedom. In a world moving toward liberty, we are determined to show the meaning and promise of liberty.

Its all good and fine to believe in democracy… but… having witnessed the farce of Black African democracy… I’m really not a great believer in the crusade.

Its good to have values, to believe in those values and to fight for them, but many times, not all people are the same. I think the whole Democratic thing in Africa was highly overblown… Freedom did NOT bring prosperity to Africa… nor peace… Indeed, it brought the opposite… It brought… MORE POVERTY… and the entire continent is wracked with black-on-black violence… Wars which run 20 years in Africa… are common. Just today… the President of Guinea survived an assassination attempt.

Now the Arabs are a strange people… and it appears to me… that the concept of Democracy… is lost on these people… just as it is lost and wasted on the Black Africans. Let the Arabs live their way… If they have weird values which result in one dictator after another… well… maybe its their business. I don’t think… democracy is a good enough excuse for the USA to attack other countries.

For terrorism, WMD – yes. For democracy? No! Unless… George Bush is just a good propagandist… If Bush’s real reason for wanting to threaten Iraq and Iran is military – then great. If he’s selling it… on moral grounds… to inspire Americans… by using the democracy word… then so be it.

I do think, the general sense of his address is such that… if he’s about to go on a “crusade” for democracy… then it will mean trouble.

I do believe… that anti-American forces would *LIKE* the USA to attack Iran. Why? Because Iran and Iraq together… can be the places where the USA is defeated… like Vietnam.

Iran has:-
2.5 times the population of Iraq
4 times the land area
A volunteer army of 1 million men
The army is trained in guerilla tactics in the event of an invasion
Unlike Iraq… Iran is not flat… It has mountains, forests, etc.

If it took 150,000 American soldiers to “hold” (if one can call it that)… Iraq… then imagine how many more would be needed in Iran?

If the US war is now costing $1 billion PER DAY… what will it cost if Bush invades Iran?

Chances are… if Bush invades Iran… that the Iranian military… (portions of which have already gained combat experience in Iraq)… will melt away… and start waging a guerilla war…

The only plus for Iran is this: Apparently… much of the youth are very pro-American… and there is far more pro-American sentiment there than in Iraq. Nevertheless… Iran is the major sponsor of terror in Iraq and also all along Israel’s borders.

It will be fascinating to see… if George Bush tries to engage in a crusade… If he does… and if he dares invade Iran… I would expect to see a lot of sparks.

My sense of the Iraq war… is that its not gone well… Terrorists freely come across the borders… and the USA might be forced to start attacking terrorist bases in Syria in an attempt at quelling the influx. Terrorists move freely in from Iran… There are still places in Iraq which are not under US army control. All in all… It appears to me the military aspect is not as firmly sorted out as it should be. In time to come, I believe this will bite Bush.

In my view… things would be better… and less bloody… if the USA merely gave Israel the weapons needed to destroy the Iranian nuclear reactor. The Israelis are not interested in conquest… nor in spreading “democracy”. They just want to be left alone. And I think George Bush could learn a lot from the Israeli Jews… if he followed their advice. Instead… going on a “crusade”… could result in some serious trouble.

I also would not be surprised… if one saw new terror attacks on US soil this year. But it depends on many things… However, I think the possibility of a mega-terror attack on US soil should not be ruled out. Exactly when? Probably… when its least expected…

I don’t think the “war on terror” is being won… and I don’t see it going away any time soon… and I don’t think an invasion of Iran will solve it either. Its not that I don’t think the war isn’t winnable. I do think it is winnable. I just question the US strategy. I think the USA is trying to make too many friends… when in fact… shooting people would have had a better effect. Terrorise the terrorists… that’s my firm belief. If Bush scared the living daylights out of the enemy, using real “shock and awe” methods… and allowed the US Army to get down and DIRTY… then I think it would win quickly. This sort of: “Tough Love” kinda war… is EXTREMELY COSTLY… Spending $1 billion to train an Iraqi army which then runs away whenever shots are fired… All this democracy… and loving… and holding back… is costly, time consuming and will bankrupt the USA. Maybe… the war will still cost $2 billion per day?

I think the war could be won… if it were fought like a true war… like say, World War II or the US Civil war. But the current methods… I think will stretch the US economy to breaking point.

I think too… this war on terror, could easily run for another 10 years… unless some serious military stuff is done.

Anyhow… I think Bush’s next four years… could be much more “exciting” than the last four… 9/11 occurred 8 months after George Bush’s last inauguration. Let’s see what happens this time.

Jan