Categories

CIA Expert: Looming threat of HIV in some African/Asian nations

WARNING: This is Version 1 of my old archive, so Photos will NOT work and many links will NOT work. But you can find articles by searching on the Titles. There is a lot of information in this archive. Use the SEARCH BAR at the top right. Prior to December 2012; I was a pro-Christian type of Conservative. I was unaware of the mass of Jewish lies in history, especially the lies regarding WW2 and Hitler. So in here you will find pro-Jewish and pro-Israel material. I was definitely WRONG about the Boeremag and Janusz Walus. They were for real.

Original Post Date: 2004-02-23  Posted By: Jan

From the News Archives of: WWW.AfricanCrisis.Org
Date & Time Posted: 2/23/2004 3:49:38 PM
CIA Expert: Looming threat of HIV in some African/Asian nations

[Don’t forget to take a look at the report on AfricanCrisis.org in the Photo Gallery/Archive – “South Africa Beyond Democracy” – where Dr Du Plessis predicted the full effects of AIDs in South Africa and other Southern African countries. We’ve been saying these things for ages – now here we have a declassified CIA report saying the same thing. Jan]

David Gordon bases dire predictions on “Next Wave” report

In some parts of Africa the killer HIV/AIDS infection is spreading like wildfire, threatening to overwhelm the its social, economic, political and security structures — and Africa is not alone in trying to deal with these problems, says David Gordon, the author of a recently declassified U.S. Government report on the pandemic that has killed 28 million people around the world since 1981.

Speaking February 5 on “The Global Pandemic: AIDS in Africa, China, and Russia” at an event sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Gordon said, “The looming growth of HIV/AIDS [infection] rates” in Africa is alarming but, he warned, the disease could “spread dramatically from its base in Africa” to other regions like Russia and India leading to as many as 50 million deaths by 2010.

[Of the 42 million people currently infected with HIV/AIDS, about 70% live in Africa.]

“We have a very large problem and the problem is getting worse,” Gordon told his audience, which included Ambassador Randall Tobias, the U.S. Government’s coordinator of all HIV/AIDS assistance programs overseas, an effort toward which President Bush has pledged more than $15 billion. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Tommy Thompson also spoke at the event.

Thompson, who made an AIDS fact-finding trip to four African nations in early December, said, “The Bush Administration has made an unprecedented and growing commitment to fighting the disease at home and abroad. On Monday (February 2), the President requested almost $20 billion to address HIV and AIDS in 2005, a 28 percent increase over 2001. No government has ever committed the time, energy and resources to fighting AIDS as the United States under President Bush.”

Gordon, who is director of the Office of Transnational Issues at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), based his facts on an Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) highlighting the “rising problem” of AIDS through 2010 in what he said were five countries of strategic importance to the United States. The former senior staff member on the House International Relations Committee was instrumental in preparing the report called: “The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India and China,” which he said was read by President Bush as well as other top government officials and lawmakers before being declassified last year.

The report, meant to complement a 1999 HIV/AIDS assessment written under the aegis of the National Intelligence Council (NIC, a think tank within the CIA), was reviewed by a body of experts that included Dr. Anthony Fauci, a renowned HIV/AIDS researcher at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and Nicholas Eberstadt, an AEI fellow and expert on health and economic matters. Eberstadt also joined Gordon at the AEI discussion.

By 2010, the report projects Nigeria will have 10 to 15 million AIDS cases; Ethiopia 7 to 10 million; China 10 to 15 million; India 20 to 25 million; and Russia 5 to 8 million.

“Nigeria and Ethiopia will be the hardest hit,” the report states, “with the social and economic impact similar to that in the hardest hit countries in southern and central Africa — decimating key government and business elites, undermining growth and discouraging foreign investment. Both countries are key to regional stability, and the rise in HIV/AIDS will strain their governments.” Such effects could pose a serious security threat on a continent that some U.S. officials have said has become a breeding ground for international terrorism.

As for treatment, the report notes, “The cost of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) — which can prolong the lives of infected people — has plunged in recent years but still may be prohibitively high for populous, low-income countries. More importantly, the drug costs are only a portion of HIV/AIDS treatment costs. Drug-resistant strains are likely to spread because of the inconsistent use of ARV therapies and the manufacture overseas of unregulated, substandard drugs.”

With an average health budget of only about $10 per person per year in Africa, currently only between 75,000 and 100,000 people out of an infected population of over 20 million is being treated with ARVs on the continent, said Roger Bate, an AEI fellow and international health expert who joined in the AIDS discussion. AEI’s Eberstadt further added that, compared to the United States, where “$40 billion a year is spent on pets [animals’] healthcare,” Africans — excluding South Africa — spend only about $4 billion a year on health care for humans.

The pandemic has gained ground in Ethiopia, the report notes, due in part to “the generally poor health of Ethiopians as a result to drought, malnutrition, limited health care, and other infectious diseases, which has caused HIV to progress rapidly to AIDS.”

On a less bleak note, the “Next Wave” report also mentions: “Through 2010, HIV/AIDS will increase more slowly or even decline in southern and central Africa where it has been devastating the populations of Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.” In addition, “The Governments of Nigeria, India and China are beginning to focus more attention on the HIV/AIDS threat.” And as the case of Uganda has shown, a top down approach toward AIDS education and prevention can slow the disease.

Gordon said, “In Nigeria President [Olusegun] Obasanjo has spoken up more frequently about the threat of HIV/AIDS. There is a civil society movement taking hold in Nigeria.” On the other hand, the expert said, “I’m troubled by the difficulty Nigeria is having facing other health challenges [like polio eradication]…for political reasons.”

The AIDS threat and its repercussions are also being felt elsewhere in the world. In China, where an estimated 3 million people are infected by AIDS — a number that could grow to 15 million by 2010, senior officials are now bringing much needed attention to the growing crisis.

“The Chinese President has publicly acknowledged the AIDS challenge facing the country,” said the CIA expert, “and met an infected person on television recently. Clearly there is recognition of the problem. Whether China will be able to grapple with this will depend on whether it will allow the openness and accountability that has so far been so dramatically lacking in their political system.”

In Russia, Gordon noted, official government reaction to the spread of HIV/AIDS has been far “slower than we anticipated.” According to the “Next Wave” report, the number of people infected with AIDS could grow from about 3 million in 2002 to 8 million in 2010. “President Putin hardly ever mentions HIV/AIDS. He has been satisfied to leave the issue in the hands of a deputy health minister and not much is happening in Russia to establish any kind of a national priority” to fight the disease.

While the report projects India with 20 to 25 million AIDS cases by 2010 — the highest projection for any other country, Gordon said that was offset by the country’s advanced medical establishment. “If you look at what has happened on the ground in India, there has been a very significant ramping up of AIDS programs. The good news is that of the five countries mentioned in “Next Wave” report, [India] is the best positioned in terms of health infrastructure to make an effective response to the disease and there is some good evidence that is happening.”

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: usinfo.state.gov)

Source: AllAfrica.com
URL: http://allafrica.com/stories/200402230870.htm…br>