Russia Fears Central Asian Tinderbox

Original Post Date: 2001-09-22  Posted By: Jan

From the News Archives of: WWW.AfricanCrisis.Org
Date & Time Posted: 9/22/2001 10:23:22 PM
Russia Fears Central Asian Tinderbox

I wonder if this should be retitled: “Russia WANTS/PRAYS FOR Central Asian
Tinderbox” (Jan)

Source: Telegraph UK
By Ben Aris in Moscow
(Filed: 21/09/2001)

RUSSIA was still undecided over offering practical help to any American
strike against Afghanistan because it fears that this could destabilise the
whole of Central Asia.

Igor Ivanov, the foreign minister, hinted on Tuesday that Russia might allow
US forces to use bases in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, but he
seemed to step back from his remarks yesterday.

The Kremlin is concerned that an attack on Afghanistan could fuel Islamic
uprisings across the Central Asian states which still look to Moscow as the
dominant power in the region.

The most likely centre of operations the United States would prefer is
Tajikistan, which has a large Russian base only 60 miles from the Afghan
border.

The Tajiks have only recently emerged from a five-year civil war and Russian
troops are there to support the local government and ensure stability as much
as to protect the border.

The country is still troubled by outbreaks of violence led by regional
warlords and disgruntled United Tajik Opposition guerrilla leaders, who
oppose the current government.

Thanks to the presence of Russian troops the Tajik government has regained
some sort of control over the country.

However, guerrilla fighters who have been backed into a corner during the
intermittent fighting have begun spilling over the border into neighbouring
republics.

Last August, Kyrgyzstan was raided by Islamic rebels coming across the Tajik
border. They captured a group of Japanese geologists who were looking for
gold in the mountains and four US mountaineers who were on holiday in the
region.

With an economy reeling from sustained droughts and its people on the point
of starvation in some southern areas, the tiny Kyrgyz army is ill-equipped to
fight battle-hardened rebels or a sustained campaign against incursions.

The spread of Tajik rebels has also worried Uzbekistan. North-west Tajikistan
includes the head of the fabled Fergana valley, the only really fertile place
in Central Asia.

Alexander the Great passed through the valley on his way to India and
commented on the abundance of melons and grapes, which still grow there.

To add to the confusion almost all the regional nationalities are present in
the Fergana valley with little regard for the political borders artificially
created by Stalin decades ago.

Kyrgyzstan also straddles the Fergana valley, the bulk of which lies in
Uzbekistan.

Afraid that rebels would pass down the valley into their country, the Uzbeks
sent fighter planes into Kyrgyz territory last year to bomb rebel positions,
to the outrage of the Kyrgyz government.

However, the Uzbek fears are well justified as president Islam Karimov, a
virtual dictator, narrowly survived an assassination attempt in December 1999
when Islamic extremists exploded five car bombs in Tashkent, the capital.

Mr Karimov has tried to repress Islam in his country, but with only limited
success. Samarkand, in the middle of Uzbekistan, is an important holy city in
the Islamic world.

Uzbekistan’s large Muslim population is concentrated in the Fergana valley,
the scene of frequent police raids where human rights groups say a man can be
arrested for little more than having a beard.

There is an uneasy peace but analysts have been warning for years of the
“explosion of the Fergana valley”, a popular and religiously motivated
uprising against Mr Karimov’s authoritarian rule.

What the Kremlin and the leaders of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan
fear most is a flood of rebel fighters spilling out of Afghanistan and into
their countries.

This would be a spark to set off the tinderbox of religious dissent all along
the Fergana valley.

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