Russian Generals Says this is America"s 2nd Vietnam

Original Post Date: 2001-09-22  Posted By: Jan

From the News Archives of: WWW.AfricanCrisis.Org
Date & Time Posted: 9/22/2001 10:15:02 PM
Russian Generals Says this is America"s 2nd Vietnam

Below is a most interesting article. My comments follow at the end:-

Source: www.newsmax.com
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
September 20, 2001
The Russian print media has continued to devote much ink and many column
inches to the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and
Washington and the impending U.S. response. While both ordinary Russians and
officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have expressed their
condolences for the victims of those attacks and called for a united front
against international terrorism, a significant portion of the press coverage
and commentary has begun expressing doubts over America’s planned military
response.

Moskovsky Komsomolets, for example, today featured a long article with Boris
Gromov, the governor of Moscow Oblast who commanded Soviet forces in
Afghanistan.

Gromov, who has already warned that the involvement of U.S. ground forces in
Afghanistan could turn out to be a “second Vietnam,” refused to give any
concrete advice. He did say, however, that “intelligence of all types” would
play the most important role in any possible conflict in Afghanistan.

Gromov added that while the use of nuclear weapons would “simplify the task
of liquidating terrorists in hard-to-reach regions,” it would also endanger
the lives of tens of thousands of civilians, put the world on the edge of
“full-scale war” and never be forgiven by Muslim countries. While Gromov
expressed deep sympathy for the United States, he ruled out completely the
possibility that the Russian army would assist the U.S. armed forces if they
entered Afghanistan (Moskovsky Komsomolets, September 20).

For its part, the weekly Argument i Fakty featured an interview with Valentin
Varennikov, who was deputy head of the Soviet General Staff from 1979 to 1984
and a key planner of the Soviet Union’s military campaign in Afghanistan.
Varennikov said that it would be “simply ludicrous” for the United States to
introduce ground forces in Afghanistan. He also claimed that Russia has long
been fighting international terrorism, “in both Afghanistan and Chechnya,”
but that no one has supported Russia, including “the Americans,” who “only
spoke about violations of human rights.”

Varennikov urged the creation of an international coalition against
terrorism, but said he considered it “inadvisable” to urge Russia’s “allies”
in the Commonwealth of Independent States to allow U.S. forces to use their
bases. “Let the United States launch surgical strikes from the territory of
Pakistan, bomb the Taliban from [aircraft carriers] located in the Indian
Ocean,” Varennikov said. “There is no need for Russia to be drawn into
another war in Afghanistan” (Argumenty i Fakty, September 19).

The Gazeta.ru website, meanwhile, posted an article chronicling the latest
developments surrounding the U.S. attempts to build an antiterrorism
coalition and the latest statements from Afghanistan’s Taliban regime. While
the article was basically a straight news story, it was headlined: “America
prepares for its second Vietnam” (Gazeta.ru, September 19).

Meanwhile, the Russian authorities continued their efforts to try and link
the Chechen rebels with Osama bin Laden. Vladimir Kalamanov, President
Vladimir Putin’s special representative for human rights in Chechnya, said
yesterday that Chechen rebel groups were unquestionably “part of the
international terrorist movement” and claimed that former acting Chechen
President Zelimkhan Yandarbiev had lived in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and
was closely linked to bin Laden. Kalamanov, who was on a visit to Switzerland
for talks with Council of Europe officials, said the Russian authorities have
information that bin Laden, among others, was financing the Chechen rebels
through front companies, using the international banking system, and that new
funds could lead to a new upsurge in “terrorist activity” in Chechnya, which
has already escalated over the last two weeks (Strana.ru, September 19).

Meanwhile, the pro-rebel website Kavkaz.org, which is run out of Qatar and
connected to Movladi Udugov, who served as foreign minister under Chechen
rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov, today ran a commentary scoffing at such claims
by Russian media and officials–although not Kalamanov’s claims specifically.
The website noted it had run comments from rebel field commander Shamil
Basaev expressing condolences to the families of victims of the September 11
terrorist attacks while expressing solidarity with the Taliban “against
possible Western attacks” (Kavkaz.org, September 20). The Chechenpress news
agency, which is connected to Maskhadov, suggested that the September 11
attacks were aimed at provoking the United States into a war with
Afghanistan. “The Afghan state has enough enemies, particularly many in the
Kremlin,” the news agency noted. Another pro-rebel website today denied
Russian television reports claiming that one or more of the hijackers who
carried out the September 11 attacks had fought in Chechnya.

I’m watching the Russian reaction to the USA with interest. It is pretty
cool. The Russians are not helping the USA. But did anyone sincerely expect
them to?

The Russians are liars. They always were and they still are. I note how they
are trying to tie in their Chechen war, which is an internal thing, with
International Terrorism.

I also think one should be very careful of Russian Military advice to the
USA. I remember reading several analyses before the Gulf War of how strong
Iraq was and how America was going to be beaten. The reality was completely
different. America actually stopped short of total victory whereby they could
have annihilated Saddam’s army completely.

The “Warthog” planes for example, are actually among the most amazing planes
in the sky. As tank busters they are unmatched. The USA likes air power, and
air power could work well for them in such a difficult country as
Afghanistan.

The Russian generals are predicting Vietnam II. I am not so sure. I think the
Russians would like a Vietnam II and indeed, I believe the Russians will be
using their own forces and giving clandestine assistance to anti-American
forces in order to create a Vietnam II.

No doubt, fighting in Afghanistan is going to be very tough and one cannot
say whether the USA will win. I do think, ground troops must go in too. Air
wars alone cannot do it. But good ground and air forces could result in the
USA making good headway.

The real worry, as I see it, is that the USA may end up going it alone and
then finding that all the Muslim world is against it. I balk at the bigger
picture. I am not concerned about Bin Laden or small terrorist groups. I
think there is a bigger picture where the USA gets its forces tied up in
Afghanistan when wars can break out in Korea and Taiwan and the entire Muslim
world can turn on the USA and Israel. That is what really worries me.

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